Education Week - January 20, 2021 - 9

Chance for Success

its letter grade to B-minus for the first time.
Across the index, the nation's strongest improvements since the
2008 report are in parental education and employment levels. The
share of children with at least one parent with a postsecondary degree increased from 43.3 percent in 2008 to 52.3 percent in the 2021
report. The percent of children with at least one parent working full
time and year-round jumped from 71.8 to 79.0.

Top-Ranked
STATE

SCORE (GRADE)

Massachusetts

91.6 A-

New Jersey

89.6 A-

New Hampshire

87.9 B+

Connecticut

87.5 B+

Minnesota

87.4 B+

73.4 C

West Virginia

72.1 C-

Louisiana

72.0 C-

Nevada

70.2 C-

New Mexico

69.0 D+

B+ C+ D+

2. The nation's long-term gains have been driven
largely by progress in the South.

SCORE (GRADE)

Oklahoma

Grading
The States
A-

Bottom-Ranked
STATE

QUALITY COUNTS 2021

Most-Improved
STATE

SCORE
(GRADE)

CHANGE
2020 to 2021

Delaware

80.4 B-

2.6 Ç

Rhode Island

82.1 B-

2.4 Ç

New Mexico

69.0 D+

1.8 Ç

Alaska

75.4 C

1.8 Ç

Idaho

77.5 C+

1.4 Ç

STATE

SCORE
(GRADE)

CHANGE
2020 to 2021

Vermont

85.8 B

-2.0 È

North Dakota

83.7 B

-1.1 È

Maine

81.2 B-

-0.7 È

Connecticut

87.5 B+

-0.6 È

South Dakota

81.8 B-

-0.5 È

Largest Declines

SOURCE: EdWeek Research Center, 2021

tional Progress. The index also incorporates 2017-18 adjusted cohort graduation rates published by the U.S. Department of Education. All other metrics rely on 2019 information from the U.S.
Census Bureau's American Community Survey. More details on
data sources and methodology are available in the Sources and
Notes section of the report.
Here are key takeaways from this year's analysis:

1. The nation's climb to a milestone with its first
B-minus grade reflects gradual gains over time.
The nation's score increased from 78.4 on the 2008 Chance-forSuccess Index to 79.5 in 2021. The national score declined in the
years following the Great Recession of 2008 as most states faced
the lingering effects of that severe economic downturn. But the
nation has improved slightly on the index every year since 2018.
The 0.3 point increase in its score since last year's report boosted

The District of Columbia leads the nation in gains since the 2008
report. Its score increased from 76.4 in 2008 to 86.8 this year. Its
letter grade improved from a C to a B-plus in that time. It made
gains in family income, parent education, parental employment,
kindergarten enrollment, 4th grade reading, and 8th grade math.
Three Southern states round out the top four in gains during this
period: Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. Each state saw gains
of at least four points. All three states made gains in parental education and employment levels, as well as 4th grade reading and 8th
grade math test scores. Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Texas are other Southern states that also saw their scores improve by more than a point.
By contrast, Maryland and Vermont are the only states to decline
by more than three points over that period. Both saw their grades
drop from a B-plus to a B. Maryland lost ground in family and adult
income, the percent of children whose parents are fluent Englishspeakers, kindergarten enrollment, and 8th grade math. Vermont saw
its largest declines in the percent of children whose parents are fluent
English-speakers, kindergarten enrollment, and 4th grade reading.
From a shorter-term perspective, Delaware and Rhode Island
made the most improvement between the 2020 report and this
year's and are the only states to gain more than two points since
last year. On the other hand, Vermont was the only state to decline
by two points.

3. The striking disparities between the top- and
bottom-ranked states on specific indicators
shine a light on inequality.

State and National
Highlights Reports
These online-only reports
assess each state's performance
on a basket of key education
indicators.

www.edweek.org/go/
qc21shr

Dive Deeper
Into the Data
Take an interactive tour into
detailed state and national
grades in critical areas of
educational performance.

www.edweek.org/go/
qc21map

Interactive Map
See how your state stacks up
when it comes to the Chance-forSuccess Index.

www.edweek.org/go/
qc21interactive

The 22.6 points that separate Massachusetts and New Mexico,
the highest- and lowest-scoring states on the index, illustrate the
substantial differences in overall opportunities across states.
Drilling down to identify the top- and bottom-ranked states on
specific graded categories and indicators reveals similar disparities
in key stages of the education pipeline. Children in New Hampshire
have the strongest early foundations to prepare for school success
while those in New Mexico have the weakest. Those states' scores
in that category differ by 22.1 points.
For instance, 77.7 percent of children in New Hampshire live
in families with incomes at least 200 percent of the poverty level
compared with just 51.9 percent in New Mexico, 49.0 percent in
Arkansas, and 48.5 percent in Mississippi.
In the school years indicators, Massachusetts outpaces New
Mexico by 28.7 points. Scores on 8th grade NAEP math tests highlight the disparities. In Massachusetts, 47.4 percent of 8th graders
are proficient in math but only 20.7 reach that level in New Mexico.
Strong outcomes for adults in the District of Columbia result in
an A grade and a score of 99.7 in that category. By contrast, Mississippi gets a D, with a score of 66.2. Roughly two-thirds of the District's adults between the ages of 25 and 64 have a two- or four-year
postsecondary degree. In West Virginia, only about 3 in 10 adults
have that level of educational attainment.
The additional degrees translate into economic returns for the
residents of the District where 7 in 10 adults earn incomes at or
above the national median. Only 35.5 percent of adults have incomes at that level in Mississippi.

4. Across the indicators, state performance is
characterized by peaks and valleys.
Many states post uneven results, leading in at least one area but
lagging in another. In all, 17 states rank in the top 10 for at least
one broad stage of the educational pipeline: early foundations, the
school years, or adult outcomes.
At the same time, 16 states rank in the bottom 10 in at least one of
those categories. Nearly every state (42) earns a top 10 ranking for
at least one of the index's 13 specific indicators. Most states (35) also
land in the bottom 10 for at least one of those metrics. And while
six different states rank first in the nation on at least one of the 13
metrics, nine states finish last on an indicator.

Research interns Xinchun Chen
and Yukiko Furuya contributed
to this article.
Illustrations by Getty
EDUCATION WEEK | January 20, 2021 | www.edweek.org | 9

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Education Week - January 20, 2021

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Education Week - January 20, 2021