Education Week - June 19, 2019 - 6

Are Rising High School Graduation Rates Real or Inflated?
Study points to
achievement boost
By Catherine Gewertz

USING ACHIEVEMENT TO 'TEST' THE GRADUATION RATE

Millions of high school seniors
are claiming their diplomas, but
that spring ritual is clouded by
a persistent debate: Are the nation's record-setting graduation
rates inflated by quick-fix practices like credit recovery? Or are
they real?
A group of researchers and advocates has produced a new analysis
that supports the rosier interpretation.
Released Tuesday, as part of
an annual report on graduation
rates, the new approach offers a
counterpoint to the argument that
graduation rates have been driven
up artificially when schools push
struggling students into alternative programs, or bolster their completion data with catch-up courses,
or when states and districts erroneously-or deliberately-misclassify students.
"We didn't find a basis for that
narrative," said John Bridgeland,
the CEO of Civic, which produces
the "Building a Grad Nation" report with Johns Hopkins University, America's Promise Alliance,
and the Alliance for Excellent
Education.
But the new index drew skeptics
of its own. "It doesn't do what they
claim," said Michael Cohen, the
president of Achieve, which studies graduation-rate trends.
"If you want to address skepticism about increases in graduation
rates because they're not matched
by increases in academic performance, AP scores and 8th grade
[NAEP] scores don't accomplish
that."

Researchers have created a new index that's designed to check whether states'
rising high school graduation rates are backed up by rising student achievement.
It compares trends in graduation rates between 2011 and 2017 with changes in
two other indicators during that time: proficiency on national 8th grade tests and
the percentage of students scoring a 3 or higher on AP exams. Below are some
highlights from the 50-state index.

Testing the Grad Rate?

STATES THAT IMPROVED ONE OR NO MEASURES

The 2019 "Grad Nation" report
analyzes graduation-rate data
for the class of 2017, which was
released in January by the U.S.
Department of Education. Those
numbers showed yet another alltime high: 84.6 percent of students
completed high school within four
years.
The report's authors added a
new analysis to the 10th annual
report. Its new "secondary school
improvement index" uses three
things to test the legitimacy of the
rising graduation rate between
2011 and 2017: math and reading
proficiency on the 8th grade National Assessment of Educational
Progress, or NAEP, and the percentage of students who score 3
or higher-the level often used to
grant college credit-on Advanced
Placement tests.
The idea behind the index: If rising graduation rates are based on
real achievement, NAEP scores
and AP performance would show
improvements, too.
The researchers found that in
two-thirds of the states, rising
graduation rates were accompa-

STATES THAT IMPROVED ALL FOUR MEASURES
Georgia, California, and Florida are three states that earned high index scores
because their NAEP and AP performance rose alongside their graduation rates.
State

8th Grade
NAEP Reading
Proficiency

8th Grade Math
Proficiency

High School AP
Scores > 3

High School
Graduation
Rate

Total Index
Score

Georgia

7.8 (+)

3.6 (+)

5.2 (+)

13.6 (+)

California

8.5 (+)

3.8 (+)

8.3 (+)

6.7 (+)

Florida

5.7 (+)

1.5 (+)

7.2 (+)

11.3 (+)

STATES THAT IMPROVED THREE OF FOUR MEASURES
Nevada, Alabama, and Indiana earned good scores on the index because most of their score trends
moved in the same direction.
State

8th Grade
NAEP Reading
Proficiency

8th Grade Math
Proficiency

High School AP
Scores > 3

High School
Graduation
Rate

Total Index
Score

Nevada

1.9 (+)

-1.2

8.4 (+)

18.9 (+)

Alabama

2.1 (+)

0.7 (=)

5.2 (+)

17.3 (+)

Indiana

9.3 (+)

3.7 (+)

5.8 (+)

-2.2

Maine and Montana were "red-flagged" in the report because their achievement scores declined
or stayed flat while their graduation rates increased.
State

8th Grade
NAEP Reading
Proficiency

8th Grade Math
Proficiency

High School AP
Scores > 3

High School
Graduation
Rate

Total Index
Score

Maine

0.5 (=)

-2.8

-0.5 (=)

2.9 (+)

Montana

-6.4

-8.2

0.7 (=)

3.8 (+)

-10

South Dakota

0.2 (=)

-1.0

0.6 (=)

0.7 (=)

-2

SOURCE: Civic and Johns Hopkins University, "Building a Grad Nation 2019"

nied by solid progress on at least
two of the other measures. Twelve
states showed improvements on
all three measures as well as the
graduation rate.
The four most populous states-
California, Florida, New York and
Texas-buttressed the authors'
argument. Those states, which
together educate about one-third
of the nation's students, demonstrated progress on two or three
of the additional measures along

6 | EDUCATION WEEK | June 19, 2019 | www.edweek.org

with rises in their graduation
rates.
But even in this new, more upbeat analysis, about a third of
the states didn't meet the mark.
Their graduation rates rose over
that six-year period, but they
didn't improve their performance
in two or more of the additional
measures in the index. In Alaska,
for instance, the graduation rate
gained 10.2 percentage points,
while average NAEP proficiency

dropped 4.9 points in math and 6
points in reading.

States Raise 'Red Flags'
Two states-Maine and Montana-rated "red flag" warnings in
the report because their graduation
rates rose with no corresponding
progress in any of the three other
measures. Montana's graduation
rate rose 3.8 percentage points
between 2011 and 2017, while

its NAEP proficiency dropped 8.2
points in math and 6.4 points in
reading, and the percentage of students earning 3 or higher on AP
flatlined. Neither state responded
to Education Week's request for
comment.
The limitations of the index were
on display, as well. Nevada scored
high, since its NAEP reading
proficiency and AP college-ready
scores rose while its graduation
rate soared nearly 19 points in six
years.
The research team looked more
closely to see what drove Nevada's big grad-rate boost. The
state stopped requiring seniors to
pass exit exams to graduate, and
created more ways for students
with disabilities to earn diplomas. Those changes, while "wellintentioned," the report said, "raise
concerns that the sizable jump in
the state's graduation rate is influenced by changes in requirements
rather than demonstrable improvements."
Jonathan Moore, Nevada's deputy superintendent of student
achievement, defended the policies
as important ways to ensure that
all students have access to the curriculum and multiple ways to demonstrate mastery. "I resent the conclusion or inference that increases
in the grad rate are the reflection
of policy changes alone," he said in
an email to Education Week.
Graduation-rate skeptics have
pointed to 12th grade NAEP
scores, and SAT and ACT scores,
in arguing that there's reason to
doubt the legitimacy of graduation
rates. They ask: How can more diplomas signify that more students
are reaching mastery when collegeadmission and 12th grade NAEP
scores have barely risen, or stayed
flat?
The Civic/Johns Hopkins team
argues that 8th grade NAEP and
AP are better measures to use in
testing trends in the graduation
rate.
The 8th grade NAEP reflects
all students, unlike its 12th grade
counterpart, which misses students
who've already dropped out. Likewise, not every student takes the
SAT or ACT. Improvements in 8th
grade NAEP scores are a sign that
elementary and middle schools are
doing better preparing students
for high school, they argue. And
the AP scores support the theory
of real grad-rate gains by showing the portion of each class that's
ready for college-level work.
Cohen disagreed. Studies have
shown, he said, that rising 8th
grade math achievement is often
not sustained in the high school
years. Using AP as a proxy for
high school mastery is also flawed
because it doesn't include all students, he said.
"Let's not lose sight of the fact
that it's still better for more students to be graduating," he said.
"But we also shouldn't lose sight of
the fact that improvements in the
graduation rate are still very imperfect reflections of any gains in
academic achievement."

http://www.edweek.org

Education Week - June 19, 2019

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Education Week - June 19, 2019