Insights - May/June 2017 - 13
Full Year 2017 Intermodal
Business Volume Growth
Is Projected
N
orth American intermodal business volumes should return to the familiar
growth pattern this year, rising at a 2 percent to 3 percent pace year-over-year
despite multiple uncertainties and low fuel prices that hurt last year's results, said
TTX Company's Pat Casey.
Speaking at the opening session of IANA's Operations &
Maintenance Business Meeting, Casey delivered that projection,
which is consistent with the 2.0 percent growth in the first quarter
of 2017 that followed a 2.0 percent fourth quarter 2016 pickup.
Last year's decline, in contrast to the industry's predominant
growth trajectory, was linked to sluggish economic activity and
low fuel prices that aided over-the-road truckers.
Casey stressed that higher fuel prices in 2017 as well as
tougher trucking regulations could help to boost intermodal
volume levels, which are being buoyed so far in 2017 by strong
international traffic.
However, he also created a scenario filled with mixed
messages and uncertainty.
For example, consumer confidence is rising but spending
levels are lagging. Continued fairly soft growth, such as the 0.7
percent rise in U.S. first quarter gross domestic product, also
is a contrast to a recent business economists' survey finding
that businesses foresee big benefits from lessened government
regulation and expected infrastructure spending increases.
Casey's outlook also cited multiple unknowns, such as risks
raised by any substantive changes in U.S.
policies on immigration and trade.
The direction of the over-the-road trucking
business also is uncertain. While utilization of
equipment has been improving in that sector,
persistent low rates and weak freight volumes
over the past 18 months in long-haul trucking
are competitive concerns that could hurt
intermodal volume growth.
Still another question mark is how
much the growth of e-commerce will affect
intermodal, particularly for last-mile deliveries
that have propped up inventory levels, he
added.
to exceed intermodal volume improvements in that sector.
"There is a lower correlation of quarterly import and [inland
point intermodal] growth that was most challenging," Casey said,
both now and in 2016.
Canada was a bright spot, he said, delivering 50 percent of the
first quarter volume growth despite generating just 15 percent of
shipments.
Another question mark internationally, he said, is how lower
ocean carrier fuel prices will encourage more all-water service
through the expanded Panama Canal.
There also were shifting international freight patterns, such
as weakness in shipments from Southern California to Texas. The
Southeast, always a strong truck market, also showed signs of
weakness based on data compiled for IANA's Intermodal Market
Trends and Statistics report.
Following Casey's economic and freight commentary, Jack
Van Steenburg, chief safety officer and assistant administrator
at the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, and William
Doyle, a member of the Federal Maritime Commission, shared
updates on their agencies' activities relating to intermodal.
International Segment Improves
The international intermodal segment is
showing positive signs based on first quarter
activity. However, Casey noted that the pace
of international cargo growth has continued
FMCSA Chief Safety Officer Jack Van Steenburg (left), discusses intermodal issues with
TRAC Intermodal COO Val Noel (center) and FMC Commissioner William Doyle.
May/June 2017 | Intermodal Insights
13
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Insights - May/June 2017
President’s Message
IANA News
As Infrastructure Plan Excitement Builds, Payment Questions Are Still Prominent
Full Year 2017 Intermodal Business Volume Growth Is Projected
Maintenance & Repair Committee Focuses on Practical Steps to Aid Safety
Operations Committee Advances Chassis and Terminal Safety Efforts
Progress Achieved in Chassis Safety, More Work Ahead
Highlights from IANA's Operations & Maintenance Business Meeting
3PLs Rely on Transportation Management Systems to Meet Customer, Company Information Requirements
Freight Report
Suppliers’ TMS Offer Flexibility, Visibility to Meet Unique Intermodal Requirements
Independent Contractor Status Could be Strengthened by Recent Developments
Government News
Intermodal Information Services News
International Intermodal News
People News
New Members
Intermodal Calendar
EXPO 2017 Education Sessions Descriptions
Insights - May/June 2017 - Cover1
Insights - May/June 2017 - 2
Insights - May/June 2017 - 3
Insights - May/June 2017 - IANA News
Insights - May/June 2017 - 5
Insights - May/June 2017 - 6
Insights - May/June 2017 - 7
Insights - May/June 2017 - 8
Insights - May/June 2017 - As Infrastructure Plan Excitement Builds, Payment Questions Are Still Prominent
Insights - May/June 2017 - 10
Insights - May/June 2017 - 11
Insights - May/June 2017 - 12
Insights - May/June 2017 - Full Year 2017 Intermodal Business Volume Growth Is Projected
Insights - May/June 2017 - 14
Insights - May/June 2017 - Maintenance & Repair Committee Focuses on Practical Steps to Aid Safety
Insights - May/June 2017 - 16
Insights - May/June 2017 - Operations Committee Advances Chassis and Terminal Safety Efforts
Insights - May/June 2017 - 18
Insights - May/June 2017 - Progress Achieved in Chassis Safety, More Work Ahead
Insights - May/June 2017 - Highlights from IANA's Operations & Maintenance Business Meeting
Insights - May/June 2017 - 21
Insights - May/June 2017 - 22
Insights - May/June 2017 - 3PLs Rely on Transportation Management Systems to Meet Customer, Company Information Requirements
Insights - May/June 2017 - 24
Insights - May/June 2017 - Freight Report
Insights - May/June 2017 - Suppliers’ TMS Offer Flexibility, Visibility to Meet Unique Intermodal Requirements
Insights - May/June 2017 - 27
Insights - May/June 2017 - Independent Contractor Status Could be Strengthened by Recent Developments
Insights - May/June 2017 - 29
Insights - May/June 2017 - 30
Insights - May/June 2017 - Government News
Insights - May/June 2017 - Intermodal Information Services News
Insights - May/June 2017 - 33
Insights - May/June 2017 - International Intermodal News
Insights - May/June 2017 - People News
Insights - May/June 2017 - New Members
Insights - May/June 2017 - 37
Insights - May/June 2017 - 38
Insights - May/June 2017 - Intermodal Calendar
Insights - May/June 2017 - EXPO 2017 Education Sessions Descriptions
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