IEEE Computational Intelligence Magazine - November 2020 - 34

COVID-19 Time Series
Forecast Using Transmission
Rate and Meteorological
Parameters as Features
Mohsen Mousavi
University of Tasmania, AUSTRALIA and University
of Technology Sydney, AUSTRALIA

Rohit Salgotra
Thapar Institute of Engineering & Technology, INDIA

Damien Holloway
University of Tasmania, AUSTRALIA

Amir H. Gandomi
University of Technology Sydney, AUSTRALIA

Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/MCI.2020.3019895
Date of current version: 14 October 2020

Abstract-The number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 has
been ever increasing worldwide since its outbreak in Wuhan,
China. As such, many researchers have sought to predict the
dynamics of the virus spread in different parts of the globe. In this
paper, a novel systematic platform for prediction of the future
number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 is proposed, based on
several factors such as transmission rate, temperature, and humidity. The proposed strategy derives systematically a set of appropriate features for training Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN). To
that end, the number of confirmed cases (CC) of COVID-19 in
three states of India (Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Gujarat) is
taken as a case study. It has been noted that stationary and nonstationary parts of the features improved the prediction of the stationary and non-stationary trends of the number of confirmed
cases, respectively. The new platform has general application and
can be used for pandemic time series forecasting.
Corresponding Author: Amir H. Gandomi (gandomi@uts.edu.au).

©SHUTTERSTOCK/KOSTASGR

34

IEEE COMPUTATIONAL INTELLIGENCE MAGAZINE | NOVEMBER 2020

© IEEE 2020. This article is free to access and
download, along with rights for full text
and data mining, re-use and analysis.



IEEE Computational Intelligence Magazine - November 2020

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