IEEE Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Magazine - January 2018 - 40

These differences are due to the algorithm precision computed based on ground-truth testing.
Conclusion and Areas for Future Work
This article introduced the AMADS, which comprises a DES
and an analytic SMM. This integrated approach enables
both the modeling of diverse mission systems and the derivation of corresponding probabilities of success that together can support a military commander's field decisions. We
also described two diverse mission scenarios (i.e., missile
defense and remote object recognition and location) and
presented results from the AMADS prototype applied to
each of these scenarios. The results show that the AMADS
can assist operators and analysts with selecting algorithms
for detecting and locating objects of interest (such as lost
planes and high-end cars) and for identifying techniques to
act against threat targets (such as ballistic missiles).
There are numerous areas in which to advance this
research. For missile-defense scenarios, these include
◆ incorporating additional data sources
◆ extending the simulation and Monte Carlo analysis to
refine VT pairing, and Ps and associated confidence
interval computations
◆ providing a complete AMADS computational solution
for when the DES requires days or weeks to complete
the mission life cycle.
Regarding the last scenario, for example, consider the case
of simulating the life cycle of a cybereffect. Here, the placement of a cybertechnique could occur months before its activation and its eventual mitigation or success. We are examining
several ways to accommodate this challenge. One is to run
the simulation model for the event of placement and then to
fast-forward the simulation to the event of activation and then
to the events of success or mitigation. This works for wellplanned events but is weak for unplanned, dynamic events.
For the remote object recognition scenario, areas for
further research include
◆ integrating object-classification algorithms to increase
the probability of success and tighten confidence intervals for the lost objects
◆ leveraging cloud-based processing and elastic services
◆ testing the AMADS with raw imagery data from additional real-world missions.

ington, D.C., where he also served on the curriculum advisory board. He now serves on technical program committees
for the IEEE International Systems Conference (also on the
conference steering committee) and the IEEE International
System of Systems Engineering Conference (also an industrial liaison). He is also a Distinguished Lecturer for IEEE
Systems Council in the area of data analytics. He is a Senior
Member of the IEEE.
References
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About the Author
Paul C. Hershey (Paul_C_Hershey@raytheon.com) earned
his Ph.D. and M.S. degrees in electrical engineering from the
University of Maryland, College Park, and his A.B. degree in
mathematics from the College of William and Mary, Williamsburg, Virginia. He is with Raytheon IIS, Dulles, Virginia, where he is a principal engineering fellow focusing on
data analytics, autonomous systems, cloud computing, and
cybersecurity. He has published 34 patents (issued) with
five additional patents filed and pending, and more than 50
peer-reviewed technical articles. Previously, he was an
adjunct professor at George Washington University, Wash40

IEEE SYSTEMS, MAN, & CYBERNETICS MAGAZINE Janu ar y 20 18

missile threat," U.S. Patent US20160070674 A1, Mar. 10, 2016.
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[18] Overhead Imagery Research Data Set. (2017). Sourceforge. [Online]. Available: http://oirds.sourceforge.net
[19] DigitalGlobe. (2017). Basic imagery: Total control for our DIY customers. DigitalGlobe. [Online]. Available: https://www.digitalglobe.com/products/basic-imagery
[20] Google Maps. (2017). Google. [Online]. Available: https://www.google.com/maps
[21] DigitalGlobe. (2017). Digital Globe. [Online]. Available: http://combination
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http://www.raytheon.com/capabilities/products/sm-6 https://www.arxiv.org/abs/1312.2249 http://www.digitalglobe.com/products http://www.digitalglobe.com/products http://www.digitalglobe.com/industries/defense-and-intelligence http://www.digitalglobe.com/industries/defense-and-intelligence http://www.Inquirer.net http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/584980/malaysia-defends-search-for-missing-jet http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/584980/malaysia-defends-search-for-missing-jet http://oirds.sourceforge.net https://www.digitalglobe.com/products/basic-imagery https://www.google.com/maps http://combination.digitalglobe.com/ http://combination.digitalglobe.com/

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