IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - June 2018 - 19

Global Drivers of the
Large-Scale Energy
Infrastructure Resurgence

50 years have we seen episodes
where so many poor countries have
simultaneously done well as in the
decade preceding the recent Global
Financial Crisis [9].
The evidence is clear, says the UN
Human Development Report 2013,
that "the rise of the South is unprec-
edented in its speed and scale.
Never in history have the living con-
ditions and prospects of so many
people changed so dramatically and
so fast. This change represents a
global rebalancing far greater than
that experienced during the Indus-
trial Revolution. The Industrial Rev-
olution was a story of perhaps 100
million people, but this is a story
about billions of people" [7, p. 11].
This change in economic dynam-
ics over the past decade is due in
part to the differing experiences of
Northern and Southern countries
during and after the Global Finan-
cial Crisis of the 21st century. In the
past, Northern countries served as
the major importers of goods from
Southern countries, such that as
Northern economies grew or reced-
ed and as demand increased or
decreased it would have a trickle-
down effect on the export economy
of less developed countries. The 21st
century recession that resulted has
largely upended this relationship.
It is argued that in developed
countries the crisis stemmed from,
in part, a constriction of credit flow,
which followed the burst of the hous-
ing and oil price bubbles caused
by excessively low interest rate po-
licies from financial institutions
[10]. Initially emerging economies
"dodged the housing cr isis that
froze credit markets in the United
States and Europe and that threw
the rich world into the worst down-
turn since the 1930s. They never had
to bail out their banks or endure the
high unemployment and stagnant
growth that historically follow finan-
cial crises" [11]. While the reduced

The Great Economic
"Convergence"
The economic separation of early
industrializers from the rest of the
world during the Industrial Revolution,
often termed "the great divergence,"
has characterized our global political
and economic hegemony for the past
two centuries [1]-[3]. But now, a histor-
ic change is taking place. A "great con-
vergence" is underway as less devel-
oped countries quickly adopt the
technology, competence, and policies
that formerly propelled the developed
world [4]-[6]. United Nation's Human
Development data shows that for the
first time in over 150 years the com-
bined output of today's most popu-
lous emerging markets - China,
India, and Brazil - is equal to the
combined GDP of all the major indus-
trial powers of the north - Canada,
France, Germany, Italy, the United
Kingdom, and the United States -
representing a major rebalancing of
global economic power.
In fact, it is projected that China,
India and Brazil alone will make up
over 40% of global GDP by 2050 [7,
p. 13], and the "convergence" is far
beyond these three [8]. Countries
such as Mexico, Bangladesh, Tan-
zania, and Yemen and at least forty
others have registered significant
growth this decade and other break-
out nations such as Afghanistan and
Pakistan had some of the fastest
growth rates in the world over the
past ten years. On average, non-
oil, non-small developing countries
have seen GDP per capita increas-
ing at a rate of 3% per year since the
1990s. Today, the South produces
about half of world economic output,
up from a third in 1990 [7, p. 13].
While there have been periods of
rapid growth for individual coun-
tries in the past, seldom in the last
JUNE 2018

∕

IEEE Technology and Society Magazine

spending and reduced demand
from markets in advanced countries
did eventually have impact on less
developed countries, they were able
to keep growing in the aftermath of
the crisis, albeit more slowly, unlike
most advanced economies which
registered negative growth for many
years after the crisis.
Economic growth alone does not
automatically translate into human
development progress. But Southern
countries are not just tapping into
global trade, they are also improv-
ing health, communication, and
education services, which continue
to support the growth experienced
since the 2000s. This contrasts with
contemporary policies adopted by
many Northern countries which
include austerity measures and cut-
ting of social programs post-eco-
nomic crisis. Experts say that it is
this combination of policies, popu-
lation growth and global economics
that has allowed the middle class
in the South to expand so rapidly
[7]. In fact the UN projects that by
2030 more than 80% of the world's
middle class will reside in develop-
ing countries and account for 70%
of total consumption expenditure
globally [7, p. 14].

Global South's Growing Middle
and Energy Demand
With this unprecedented improve-
ment in aggregate human develop-
ment scores, we are now seeing an
increasing demand for basic servic-
es across the globe. Improved water
and sanitation access along with
reliable energy services have be-
come major Millennium and now
Sustainable Development Goals
(SDGs). The U.S. Energy Information
Administration (EIA) projects that
due to population growth, non-Orga-
nization for Economic Cooperation
and Development (OECD) econo-
mies will account for more than
half of the world's total increase in

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