IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - September 2019 - 59

more accurately reflect the original Hindsight analysis.
However, the 1967 paper in Science still caused controversy and the final report in 1969 thus shows further
modified conclusions.

Project Hindsight conducted an
analysis of contemporary history by
examining the sources of innovation
in key weapon systems.

Hindsight's Methods
A consideration of Hindsight's methods and a consideration of a couple key assumptions undercuts some of
the controversies just discussed. For the study, a team
of "5-10 scientists and engineers selected for their
expertise in the area of the subject system" examined
each of the Hindsight's 20 weapons systems [7]. In total,
the teams expended approximately "40 man years," or
work year equivalents of effort. While the 1966 brief in
Science mentions that Hindsight involved a team of
management scholars from Northwestern and M.I.T., the
reports do not discuss this. We rely on the 1966 report
to understand the Hindsight methodology because it
seems to be the least influenced by controversy. Sherwin and Isenson state:
"Our method of analysis was as follows: One
begins by comparing a successor item with a predecessor, identifying all the contributions from science and technology which were significant in the
improvement in performance or the reduction in
cost of the item ... The team dissects the system
into its subsystems and components to assure
systematic analysis, and then identifies each contribution from recent science and technology which,

in their judgment, is clearly important either to
increased system performance or to reduced cost,
compared to a predecessor system when such can
be identified. For those cases where no predecessor exists, the contributions (primarily 1945 to
date) are those which are judged to be essential to
the attainment of a successful system. In making
these judgments, the analyzing team worked with
the principal contractors involved in the engineering development and production of the system"
(emphasis added [7, p. 1]).
The focus on subsystems and components shows
the rigor of the teams' assessments. Whenever a team
saw that low-level technical components were different, it employed a subject matter expert to assess
whether the different components improved performance or reduced cost of the system. The study
engaged a broad variety of interviewees with detailed
knowledge as shown by the involvement with the

TABLE 2. Timeline of Hindsight and TRACES.
HINDSIGHT
Initial Release

1964

Began with an initial one-team study of the "Bullpup" weapons system upgrade. Major work begins on the
Project in the subsequent year, leading to 20 systems being evaluated with about "40 man years" performed.

1966

June; An interim report on Project Hindsight is released: Sherwin and Isenson 1966 [7].
November 18; the first major announcement of project Hindsight came in a news article in the journal
Science. Daniel Greenberg [9].

1967
Reactions to
HINDSIGHT

June; Interim Hindsight summary in the journal Science by Sherwin and Isenson [8]. It discusses the
conclusions but says relatively little about the methodology.
Fall; TRACES counter-study from the NSF begins.

1968

June; A news article in Science summarizes Project Hindsight as concluding that "the data do not
provide much of a case for the utility of recent undirected science" (Greenberg)
December; TRACES Volume I released [11].

1969
HINDSIGHT
Revised Release
Further
Reactions

January; TRACES Volume II released [10].
October; Final Hindsight report released: Isenson, "Project Hindsight: final report" [6].

1970

Defense Authorization Bill: Senator Mike Mansfield introduces and passes an amendment forbidding
DOD to fund non-relevant R&D.

1971

Mansfield Amendment passed to the Defense Authorization bill allowing the Secretary of Defense to
grant a waiver on R&D relevancy.

SEPTEMBER 2019

∕

IEEE TECHNOLOGY AND SOCIETY MAGAZINE

IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - September 2019

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - September 2019