IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - September 2019 - 61

Number of Events

The vast majority (91%) of
RXD events were categorized
as technology or engineering
related - as innovations that
Predecessor
15
Design Release to Production
occurred while establishing a
(No Money Available)
System
First Production Contract
given technology or in the actuDate*
al development of the weapon
10
system. Of the remaining nine
percent of RXD events, almost
all were applied science, mean5
ing the source of innovation
came from laboratory focused
proofs of practically relevant
claims. Only three RXD events
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
Year
were attributable to basic sciNote: *Includes significant specification changes.
ence research. In light of the
limited contribution of basic scifrequency from the original Hindsight report (Fig. 3 in the
ence research, the Hindsight FIGURE 1. Plot of RXD event
Hindsight report [7, p. 18]).14
authors narrow their conclusions to apply only to the recent
utilization of science in DOD weapons systems rather
100
than to the role of science in engineering generally.
90
The Hindsight report also provides rich data on
11%
52%
37%
80
when RXD events occur - see Figure 1 (This was FigAverage
Normalized
ure 3 in the Hindsight report) for an example of when
70
Predecessor
Control Date
RXD events occurred in relation to the development of
Date
60
the Mark 56 and 57 mines. Figure 2 (which was Fig50
ure 5 in the Hindsight report) shows a normalized distri40
bution of RXD events with respect to the "average
30
predecessor date" (the average production date of the
20
weapons system being replaced or upgraded) and the
10
"normalized control date" (the average production date
. . . . . . 9876543210123456 . . .
of the new system). The authors found that many key
innovations (37%) occurred after the initiation of a sysYear
tem's development and after the award of a contract.
FIGURE 2. Plot of RXD event frequency from the original
This implies that much of the challenge in developing a
Hindsight
report (Fig. 5 in the Hindsight report [7, p. 20]).
new system occurs during the development process.
The amount of innovation after contract awards may be
proportional to what more needed to be learned. Postreport to trace the sources of innovation in science
innovation cost and schedule challenges would be furresearch: "Technology in Retrospect and Critical Events
ther evidence for this.
in Science (TRACES)." The NSF study began in the fall
Several other insights emerge from the Hindsight
of 1967 and was released as Volume I in December
report. For example, Hindsight strongly emphasizes the
1968 and Volume II in January 1969. (Hindsight's
hundreds of events required for any major system develfinal report was also released in 1969.) TRACES chose
opment. This is how Szajnfarber's recent influential
five different civilian technologies that were recent, innostudy of innovation [5] positively cites the 1967 paper.
vative, had not been studied significantly, and had signifThere is also a significant and interesting discussion
icant positive societal impact. These were magnetic
of the workforce involved in the Hindsight project studferrites, the oral contraceptive pill, the video tape recordies: the authors compare age and educational backer, the electron microscope, and matrix isolation. The
ground among those involved in RXD events.
specific methodology of TRACES is not clearly specified. Experts reviewed the sources for each innovation,
TRACES Summary
but appear not to have used qualitative interviewing or
In response to the preliminary Hindsight report, the U.S.
similar approaches. The Illinois Institute of Technology
Research Institute, on a $164 000 contract (real year
National Science Foundation commissioned its own

SEPTEMBER 2019

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IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - September 2019

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