IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - March 2017 - 72

patterns, side effects, etc. Examination of the societal implications of technology should be developed further
and conclusions formed in a way that positive consequences can be realized for sustainable development
and negative effects prevented or minimized.
Uncertainties about potential environmental and
health effects of engineered nanomaterials, and the
diversity of these materials, create major challenges for
responsible manufacturing and use of these substances.
Safety concerns may impose important constraints on
the exploitation of the positive aspects of engineered
nanomaterials. In current production processes, nanomaterial ingredients are often used, despite being being
potentially risky for human health or the environment.
In the following sections we will deal with evaluating
the societal effects of technology, with different
approaches to evaluating societal effects of emerging
technologies, scenario evaluation, and with ex-post evaluation of the National Iranian Nanotechnology Initiative
(NINI) document.

In current production processes,
nanomaterial ingredients are often
used, despite being potentially risky
for human health or the environment.
Societal Impact Assessment of Nanotechnology
Technology assessment (TA) aims to provide knowledge
and orientation for acting and decision-making on the
technology itself, on one hand, and for its implementation in society on the other hand [2]-[4]. The purpose of
TA is to improve society at large: TA can generate policy
options regarding future paths of technology and the
diffusion of technology into society. In doing so, it is
necessary to have a good understanding of the dynamics and future development of the affected subsystems
of society, of the respective role of nanotechnologies, as
well as the normative background of sustainability.
Technology assessment is usually considered a contribution to shaping a technology, not at the engineering
level, but at the level of the societal framework and conditions for technology development. This level includes
public funding of new technologies, influencing the conditions of successful diffusion of innovations, and regulatory issues. There is often a dichotomy in TA that also
applies in the field of nanotechnology:
■ TA as ''early warning'' against possible side effects
and risks of innovative developments, for example

72

elaborating on the operationalization of the ''precautionary principle'' in specific cases [4].
■ TA as an innovation-oriented activity to recognize
potentials and benefits of new technologies at early
stages of development, and to explore strategies to
optimally exhaust and harvest opportunities created
by the new technologies.

Future Technology Assessment
The most common approach for the assessment of
potential environmental impacts is the method of life
cycle analysis (LCA). LCA is defined as an ''objective
process to evaluate the environmental burdens associated with a product, process, or activity through identifying the energy and materials used and the wastes
released to the environment, and to evaluate and implement opportunities to affect the environmental improvements'' [5]. LCA is covered by a set of international (ISO)
standards and it can be considered the most advanced
and standardized procedure for evaluating environmental aspects of a product and predicting its product-specific environmental impact [6].
Despite much research by the scientific and political
communities claiming that the LCA methodology should
be used for assessing existing and expected developments in nanotechnology [5], in practice we found only a
few papers that actually use the LCA methology. Since
life cycle analyses generally assume a functionally equivalent substitution of an existing technology by innovative
technologies, LCA is indeed a "relative assessment" that
can only be performed for products or processes that
are already shaped and are already available on the market, or close to their introduction. On the other hand,
LCA and other methods of TA - including cost-benefit
analysis, risk analysis, and (eco-) toxicology - require a
great deal of detailed information about the subject
under investigation, including information about the
agent (substance, noxa or harm, technology), the exposure of the target system (endpoints where the agents
cause their effects), and models of effects (knowledge
about how agents produce their effects in the target systems). In the case of emerging technologies, most of this
information is not available.
The mere discussion of the potential, promise,
and threats of nanotechnology is not sufficient for
deliberating and deciding on strategies for shaping
nanotechnology. The biggest challenge in addressing
these objectives is to get "valid" pictures of what
could be rationally expected for the future. Table 1
summarizes the distinguishing elements between different concepts.
It is necessary to establish an "epistemology of future
knowledge" [7]. Three types of knowledge have to be
taken into account: explanatory knowledge, orientation

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