IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - March 2017 - 74

Vision Statement or Leitbilder

eco-Profiles

Technology
Characteristics

TABLE 2. Different Approaches to the Emerging Technology Assessment (Self-Assessment Survey).
Reason for Use

Agent

Attention/Shift

Methods

When a technology's
applications are not yet
fully known.
Suitable for all generation
of nanotechnology [13].

Technology itself e.g.
solubility, mobility,
boiling point, vapor
pressure, persistence,
tendency towards bio
accumulation, etc.

Shift from effect to cause
Shift from risk analysis to
hazard characterization.

Toxicological testing, animal
testing, epidemiology
entropy balance, ecological
amortization, dispersal and
exposure models, atmospheric
chemistry, Fmea, fault-tree
analysis, depth intervention,
environmental impact analysis.

When nano technological
solutions are substitutes
for more or less existing
solutions or where a nano
technological solution
already exists as a
prototype.
Suitable for all generation
of nanotechnology [13].

Some element of life cycle
assessment (eco-profile)
e.g. change reaction type,
change of reaction
temperature, reactive
medium, Higher selectivity,
energy demand.

Giving some important
information about
environmental effects of
new technologies.

LCa, eco profile analysis.

New technologies do not
just unfold following their
own pathway of progress.
Suitable for all generation
of nanotechnology [13].

Recognizable constellations
of societal actors (innovation
system), e.g. entire process,
from basic and applied
research and product
development, use, and waste
disposal phases, influence
is possible and alternative
options can and must be
developed.

Potential Leitbilder
as guiding vision for
technological development.
Leitbilder should therefore
maintain a connection
to reality and feasibility
e.g. 'Solar economy'',
''Closed-Loop economy'',
''Green Chemistry' 'and
sustainable development.

Normative framework:
scenario processes
technology foresight methods
roadmap
constructive technology
assessment (CTa)
real time technology
assessment (RTTa).

Thus the vision statement method is a normative and
constructive framework, and for this method attention
has to be paid from the very beginning steps of the
emerging technology development. One of the most frequently used vision statement methods is the scenario
planning method. The Iranian National Plan of Nanotechnology has been formulated based on the scenario planning method. In the following section we will discuss

how the mentioned scenario must be assessed now
when its 10-year horizon time is passed.

Scenario Planning and Evaluation

NINI is based on the normative approach and scenario
planning method. Currently the predicted time horizon
of the plan has passed and thus we need to know
whether the predicted societal implications of nanotechnology development have been
fulfilled. We require a specific
methodology for such assessment. To obtain such a methR and D
Nanotechnology
Nanotechnology
odology, we first explain the
Development
Application
Implication
steps of scenario planning in
* Eco-Efficiency
* Technology
* Vision Statement
brief, and second explain the
Profile
Characterizations
or Leitbilder
criteria for assessing each step.
* Leitbilder
* Leitbilder
Since the time horizon of the
scenarios has now passed, the
proper assessment for this step
Figure 1. Matching the closed loop of the emerging technology development with
different approaches to assessment (self-assessment survey).
is the ex-post assessment.

IEEE Technology and Society Magazine

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march 2017

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