IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 23

T

echnology is a source
of risk. Technology is
a risk not only because
it often has unintended
consequences, but also
because accelerating technological change creates compound risks
resulting from multiple interacting
technologies. More importantly, a
fast changing technological environment introduces additional risk
because of the numerous social,
economic, and political opportunities it creates, and because of
the threats it facilitates. In a competitive world, taking advantage of
these new opportunities, and protecting against emerging threats
are constant battles not only for
individuals, but also for businesses
and governments. These risks are
most pronounced in global communication, military, and banking
systems, but no social institution is
immune. reduction of these risks
should be a major concern for all
social institutions. The undesirable consequences need to be dealt
with before, not after they occur.
There are numerous risk-reduction
technologies that can be deployed
to minimize risk while still maintaining the efficiencies created by
efficiency-raising technologies.

Efficiency and Risk
Technologies are created to change
the world, by creating new efficiencies to meet immediate human
needs. But such immediate efficiencies often introduce long-term
uncertainty and risk, because the
long-term consequences of new
technologies are difficult to predict. There is a reason why most
species on earth do not change their
environment. Sharks, for example,
have not changed in 100 million
years according to the fossil record
of shark teeth, although some very
large shark species have become
extinct. However, throughout history humans have often changed
their environment and themselves,
so much so that just 100 000 years
ago, nothing closely resembling a

modern human existed. Compared
to other species, humans are risktaking. We are a desperate species
that is willing to take great chances
to survive, probably because human
survival has been precarious. Successful species do not take great
risks with their already successful
strategies. One theory suggests that
human existence has always been
precarious, and that about 100 000
years ago human ancestors even
faced imminent extinction, with

Consider the automobile. It
changed the efficiency of point
to point individual transportation
dramatically. Yet, it also introduced new risks related to urban
air pollution and contributions to
climate change. There is considerable evidence that despite efforts to
control automobile exhaust, with
modern emission control technologies and elimination of lead from
fuel, urban air pollution may still
be the cause of a great deal of ill-

Immediate efficiencies often
introduce long-term uncertainty
and risk.
their population going below a few
thousand individuals. This is when
Africa faced a great climate disaster, which presumably forced the
survivors to migrate out of Africa
as a desperate move to survive.
Such risk-taking behavior continues unabated to this day [4], [19].
Consider agriculture. It created
huge efficiencies in food production, by subjugating land, plants,
and animals to serve human needs.
But it also created huge risks, in
the long run, of deforestation,
land erosion, environmental pollution, species extinction, and new
plant, animal, and human diseases.
Some of the most deadly epidemics in human history are probably
the result of humans coming into
close contact with domesticated
animals, and consequently animal diseases mutating into human
diseases, such as measles from
pigs, small pox and tuberculosis
from cows, influenza from chickens, and AIDS from monkeys.
None of these consequences could
have been predicted at the time of
the adoption of animal domestication technologies, but the risk of
such unexpected consequences is
always present with any new technology [9].

IEEE TECHNOLOGY AND SOCIETY MAGAZINE

|

SuMMEr 2013

ness, such as asthma. But the real
issue is not what illness is caused
by automobiles exactly, or how
much of the climate change is
due to automobile exhaust. Those
heated debates are all taking place
after the fact, and they are missing
the point. The real issue with all
technologies is that they introduce
risk. The risk is difficult to estimate at the time of adoption, and
it may be too late to alleviate the
ill effects after the adoption. The
critical issue is the risk of unknown
future problems, not precise quantification of the known present
problems. Yet, the latter gets all
the attention from scientists, policy
makers, and the public. For example, there are currently a number
of disease epidemics in the u.S.,
such as diabetes, attention deficit
disorder, depression, and autism,
and their causes are not known;
but the chemical pollution of the
urban environment is a prime suspect in all of them. Add to them,
all the future problems that we do
not even foresee currently, and the
risks are easier to contemplate and
appreciate, without actually quantifying them [32].
The problem of risk is exacerbated by the fact that once the
|

23



Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013

IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - Cover1
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - Cover2
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 1
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 2
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 3
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 4
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 5
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 6
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 7
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 8
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 9
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 10
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 11
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 12
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 13
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 14
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 15
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 16
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 17
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 18
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 19
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 20
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 21
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 22
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 23
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 24
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 25
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 26
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 27
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 28
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 29
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 30
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 31
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 32
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 33
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 34
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 35
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 36
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 37
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 38
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 39
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 40
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 41
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 42
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 43
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 44
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 45
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 46
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 47
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 48
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 49
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 50
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 51
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 52
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 53
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 54
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 55
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 56
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 57
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 58
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 59
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 60
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 61
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 62
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 63
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 64
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 65
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 66
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 67
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 68
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 69
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 70
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 71
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 72
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 73
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 74
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 75
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 76
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 77
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 78
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 79
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 80
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - Cover3
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - Cover4
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/technologysociety_september2023
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/technologysociety_june2023
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/technologysociety_march2023
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/technologysociety_december2022
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/technologysociety_september2022
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/technologysociety_june2022
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/technologysociety_march2022
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/technologysociety_december2021
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/technologysociety_september2021
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/technologysociety_june2021
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/technologysociety_march2021
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/technologysociety_december2020
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/technologysociety_september2020
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/technologysociety_june2020
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/technologysociety_march2020
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/technologysociety_december2019
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/technologysociety_september2019
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/technologysociety_june2019
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/technologysociety_march2019
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/technologysociety_december2018
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/technologysociety_september2018
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/technologysociety_june2018
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/technologysociety_march2018
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/technologysociety_winter2017
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/technologysociety_fall2017
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/technologysociety_summer2017
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/technologysociety_spring2017
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/technologysociety_winter2016
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/technologysociety_fall2016
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/technologysociety_summer2016
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/technologysociety_spring2016
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/technologysociety_winter2015
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/technologysociety_fall2015
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/technologysociety_summer2015
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/technologysociety_spring2015
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/technologysociety_winter2014
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/technologysociety_fall2014
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/technologysociety_summer2014
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/technologysociety_spring2014
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/technologysociety_winter2013
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/technologysociety_fall2013
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/technologysociety_summer2013
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/technologysociety_spring2013
https://www.nxtbookmedia.com