IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - December 2015 - 84
Underpinning Technologies
Underpinning Technology List
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Improved large- and small-scale alternative energy
technology, better storage, wireless transfer for
low power levels, energy scavenging technology
for many consumer and monitoring applications,
advanced power grid control and micro-grid technology (smart-grid).
■ New energy technologies and more efficient use of
existing gas, oil, coal [3].
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Underpinning technologies are those existing and developing technologies that are advancing in a reasonably
predictable manner. Hence likely capabilities within 10-20
years can be determined with some degree of confidence.
Computer performance that underpins many of technology system advances has progressed according to Moore's
Law for around 50 years and recent materials technology
advances such as graphene pave the way for a further
10-20 years of exponential increase in performance and
exponential reduction in size and cost. Integrated circuit
technology, relentlessly following Moore's Law, resulted
in a high performance computer in the mid to late 1960s
(occupying many tens of cubic meters volume, drawing
many kilowatts of power, and costing several million dollars) being transformed by 1980 to the size of a thimble,
drawing just a few watts of power, and costing a few dollars while achieving similar computing performance.
Computing power and memory - excluding quantum computing - likely to experience a 10 million
fold increase in integration density with a similar
reduction in cost and a many-fold increase in speed
resulting in today's supercomputers capability (such
as, for example, the IBM Blue Gene super computer) forming the compute/memory elements in handheld consumer devices in 2025. How this massive
increase in compute power will be used is unclear.
Steadily advancing cognitive computing capability is likely to lead to a large increase in automated
machine "thinking" ability that will be available for
consumer devices by 2025. The IBM Watson computer is a first serious step in this direction.
Steadily increasing capability in networking
-10-100 GB/sec in the home and public transport,
and 1-10 GB/s mobile.
Near instantaneous and near-zero cost DNA
sequencing.
3-D printing - fast, highly capable, low cost, widespread. Already 3-D printers are employed to manufacture advanced components such as turbine blades
and aerospace components, orthopaedic replacement parts, and a range of electronic components.
Increasingly capable and rapidly reducing cost of
humanoid robotics and natural user interface technology within 20 years.
Autonomous vehicles, driverless cars, UAV's, electric vehicles - low cost, safe, efficient, widespread
within 15 years.
Smaller, cheaper, more capable sensing and monitoring technology, including new nanotechnology
based sensor systems, such as low-cost, chip-based
biochemical analysis.
Critical Issues and Technology Convergence
Slowly but steadily these new technologies are coming
together in a larger ensemble of systems that open up
new social and economic possibilities. In this section
we identify some of the critical societal issues and how
technology and system convergences can be shaped to
address these issues.
Smart Cities
The problems associated with increasing urbanization,
such as eroding urban ecology and air quality, and the
increasing pressure on infrastructure and services, can be
addressed through the following technology convergences.
Smart and Agile Power Systems + Extensive Sensing + Analytics + Networks + Autonomous Electric
Vehicles = Safe, Green, Sustainable (Smart) Cities.
Impacts include:
■ Improved urban ecology, biodiversity and air quality;
■ The development of smart "traffic light" grids that
predict traffic flow;
■ Smart and agile energy systems - "personal power"
generation, storage, and sharing;
■ Low-cost-effectiveness - reducing the relative cost of
infrastructure, improved access, and social equity;
■ Data-driven decision making - strengthened governance and improved planning and design.
The following system and technology convergences
will also be a feature of these "smart cities."
Computing Power + Robotics = Further Automation
Of Manual Work
Cyclic Economies, Increased Re-Cycling
Hand-in-hand with these developments is also the
possibility for enhanced and wide-scale surveillance of
human activities.
Water Sustainability
Improved water sustainability, waste water treatment,
drinking water, ecological health of urban waterways,
and system management can be achieved through the
convergence of smaller, cheaper, and more capable
sensing and monitoring technology, with analytics
and networks.
Extensive Sensing + Analytics + Networks =
Improved Water Productivity, Sustainability And Safer
Drinking Water
IEEE TEchnology and SocIETy MagazInE
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December 2015
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