Kitchen & Bath Business - January 2020 - 41

RANDY FISER

Hon. FASID & CEO of the
American Society of Interior
Designers (ASID)

"Hopefully after the sabre rattling of the trade
imbalances ends, agreements will be put into place
to help stabilize the supply side and return to regular marketplace factors that cause the price movements," said Doug King, president-elect of the
National Association of the Remodeling Industry's (NARI) Board of Directors. "If the U.S. and
China are unable to agree on fair pricing terms,
the U.S. will seek those products from elsewhere in
the world, which has already begun taking place."
Despite the uncertainties and disruptions in
economic activity, the overall outlook for 2019 is
positive. As for a recession, the consensus is that
we will not see one in 2020, although we will face
an economic slowdown. According to Dietz, with
the 1.9 growth in the GDP expected for 2020,
there is only a one in three chance of a recession
for the near future.
UPDATE ON THE SKILLED LABOR SHORTAGE

MANUEL GUTIERREZ

Consulting Economist for
the NKBA

DOUG KING

President-elect of the
National Association of the
Remodeling Industry (NARI)
Board of Directors

The reasons for this are many. A lot of workers
left the industry during the recession and did not
return at its end. Baby boomers are retiring, and
our younger generation is losing interest in working in the construction industry. As a result of all
three, the demand for work is outpacing available
laborers, and new construction declines.
According to the report released in November
from the Home Builders Institute (HBI), there
were about 338,000 open construction jobs at the
end of September - and that figure is only based on
those companies posting the openings. As a means
to rectify this global challenge,the industry has bolstered its efforts to bring back interest to the trades
through improved recruiting and training programs.
"The cure occurs locally,right in the communities
in which we operate,"said King."We need to partner with school boards to show the value of a career
in our industry. We need to understand how to get
access to the millions of dollars that various Federal
programs will provide for occupational training that
includes internships and apprenticeships."
HBI, an organization that provides career
technical training in the building industry, is at
the helm of this movement. It is elevating its
Schools for Skills program to get the curriculum
back into schools and is helping transition and
start-up programs by providing a nationally recognized curriculum. HBI is also working to develop
a template on providing certifications and training
instructors around the country. According to Ed
Brady, the organization's president and CEO, they
engaged 800 students this year and are planning
on 1,000 in 2020.
"HBI is in the process of developing a business model - currently conceptual in status -
that would allow its establishment of academies
throughout the country," he added. "These acad-

"If the U.S. and China are unable
to agree on fair pricing terms, the
U.S. will seek those products from
elsewhere in the world, which has
already begun taking place."
DOUG KING

emies would be based in design upon current local
champions of HBI's curriculum and scaled to
meet specific market needs. We will have more
information forthcoming as this project emerges
from its current development stage."
According to Darcy, the skilled labor shortage
has been the top challenge for NKBA members for
three consecutive quarters. As such, the association
remains focused on educating young people about
opportunities in the trades through its NextUp
initiative. At KBIS 2019 and again at this year's
show, NKBA will host high school students looking to network and learn about our industry at a
more up-close-and-personal level. NKBA is also
working with a non-profit called BridgeYear to
engage students at career test-drive fairs, where
they can feel like they are performing the actual job.
MILLENNIAL MOVEMENT

According to the NAHB's Housing Trends Report for the third quarter of 2019, only 12 percent
of adults are considering the purchase of a home
within the next 12 months - millennials (ages 23
to 38) being the most likely generation.
Still, a good portion of this younger generation is paying off significant student debts,
which makes it harder to come up with the down
payment for a first-time home. According to
Fiser, some of their parents are now at the age
where they need to be taken care of, which results in the children buying their parents' home
and swapping the asset.
"Millennials buy differently from their older
contemporaries; they take longer to make decisions, and they do more research," said King.
"Our industry is only just now becoming aware of
their buying habits, so those who wish to attract
this generation need to become familiar with and
research the millennial buyer."
OF NOTE IN 2019

Dietz thought the skilled labor shortage would
plateau in 2018, but it got worse instead. He cited
the potential need for such things as more modular construction and automatic drywalling ma-

Kitchen & Bath Business - January 2020

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