Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 40
Brazil Special Report Life After Lula Markets almost collapsed during the 2002 election, when Lula first took power. Less volatility is expected in 2010, and José Serra leads the polls. by John Rumsey egardless of how well Lula negotiates this year’s sharp downturn, the next Brazilian president faces significant challenges. José Serra, governor of São Paulo state and senior member of the opposition PSDB, is a frontrunner to win 2010 elections. The tough negotiator and competent economic steward has the hallmarks of a fiscal hawk. But his credentials as a centre-left pragmatist are likely to disappoint those seeking deep reform. With the exception of president Lula, Serra is probably the most experienced politician in the country, says Timothy Power, a lecturer in Brazilian studies at Oxford University. By the start of the military dictatorship in 1964, he had already been president of the National Union of Students. As an enemy of the military dictatorship he was exiled, thus sharing a history with his main competitor for the presidency, Dilma Rousseff, Lula’s chief of staff and front-runner in the Workers’ Party (PT) to succeed him. These experiences embed Serra firmly in the centre-left. Serra is also closely associated with his home state. Working as number two to André Montoro, governor of São Paulo state in the mid 1980s, Serra gained a reputation “as a narrow advocate of São Paulo’s industrial interests and had the reputation of being a proxy for [state federation of industries] Fiesp,” says Power. That hurt him and he has had to work hard to rid himself of this image, particularly in the Northeast, Power adds. The second key plank is a background as an academic economist, including a PhD from Cornell University. That gives Serra a much stronger technical background than Lula, but although he is, “economically much more literate than Lula, he remains true to Latin American traditions and is a bit old fashioned in his leftist views,” says Luciano Dias, political consultant at CAC in Brasilia. Serra – “saw” in Portuguese – conjures up adjectives like authoritarian, abrasive, workaholic, prickly. He is fiercely loyal to friends and unforgiving to enemies. This R Also in this section POLITICS MINING M&A PRIVATE EQUITY page 40 page 43 page 45 UPDATE For more stories on Brazil, see www.latinfinance.com > 40 LATINFINANCE March/April 2009
http://www.latinfinance.com
Latin Finance - March/April 2009
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Latin Finance - March/April 2009
Latin Finance - March/April 2009
Contents
Mid-East Investment
Man of the Year
Investor Profile
Bimbo Interview
Risa and Fall of CAP Cana
Retail M&A Prospects
Brazil Investment Report
Life after Lula
Mining M&A Pipeline
Private Equity
Mexico Investment Report
Five Corporates Investors Should Watch
Credit Market Prospects
Columbia Investment Report
Analysis of Infrastructure Investment and Local Markets
Peru Construction
Peru’s Construction Industry is Responding with Gusto to OfficialCalls to Keep Building. The Fastest-Growing LatAm Economy Hopes to Mitigate the Pain of Global Crisis
Caribbean Investment Report
Medium-Term Outlook for Jamaica, Barbados, Trinidad, Dominican Republic, Cuba and Puerto Rico
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - Latin Finance - March/April 2009
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - Cover2
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - Contents
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 2
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 3
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 4
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 5
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 6
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 7
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 8
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 9
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 10
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 11
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 12
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 13
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - Mid-East Investment
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 15
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 16
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 17
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 18
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - Man of the Year
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 20
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 21
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - Investor Profile
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 23
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 24
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 25
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - Bimbo Interview
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 27
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 28
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 29
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - Risa and Fall of CAP Cana
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 31
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 32
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 33
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - Retail M&A Prospects
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 35
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 36
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 37
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 38
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 39
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - Life after Lula
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 41
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 42
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - Mining M&A Pipeline
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 44
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 45
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - Private Equity
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - Five Corporates Investors Should Watch
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 48
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 49
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 50
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 51
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - Credit Market Prospects
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 53
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 54
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 55
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - Analysis of Infrastructure Investment and Local Markets
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 57
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 58
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 59
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 60
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 61
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 62
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - Peru’s Construction Industry is Responding with Gusto to OfficialCalls to Keep Building. The Fastest-Growing LatAm Economy Hopes to Mitigate the Pain of Global Crisis
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 64
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 65
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - Medium-Term Outlook for Jamaica, Barbados, Trinidad, Dominican Republic, Cuba and Puerto Rico
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 67
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 68
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 69
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 70
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 71
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - 72
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - Cover3
Latin Finance - March/April 2009 - Cover4
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