Latin Finance - March 2008 - 43
Special Report Storm Blows in From the North by Greg Brosnan Mexico is the main LatAm nation exposed to a US slowdown. Domestic institutional money props up the local market, but foreign flight is a risk. recession of unknown depth and breadth hangs over the world’s largest economy, which also happens to be the destination for most of Mexico’s exports. But as 2008 kicked off, Mexico’s local treasuries seemed oblivious to the looming menace of the US. Hypnotized by spreads over US Treasuries that promise to look sexier with every new Fed rate cut, investors at home and abroad are shrugging off concerns about the impact of a recession up north. They are embracing local government debt as a relatively highyielding safe haven, a trend many expect will continue. Debate is raging in emerging market countries regarding the level to which they have decoupled from the US, in part as countries like China and India become ever larger economic players and importers. Mexico is much better isolated against financial crisis than before, due to factors including an oil windfall, better debt and fiscal management and strong internal demand rooted in a booming construction and housing sector largely insulated from the US sub-prime mess. The finance ministry’s economic growth estimate of 2.8% for 2008, versus about 3.2% last year would not be a bad result considering the woes of developed nations. But analysts warn that brushing off the effect of a US recession on Mexico underestimates how much the economy still depends on its northern neighbor, and the extent to which a US downturn might quickly turn global. The Mbono curve’s newly found safe-haven status could be short-lived, they say. “The most important country in terms of growth for Mexico is not doing well and it also happens to be the country that drives consumer demand for the world,” says Benito Also in this section AIRPORTS STRUCTURED FINANCE PRIVATE EQUITY PENSION FUNDS page 46 page 49 page 52 page 54 A UPDATE For more on Mexico, see www.latinfinance.com > 2008 March LATINFINANCE 43
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Latin Finance - March 2008
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Latin Finance - March 2008
Latin Finance - March 2008
Contents
Man of the Year
Peru Domestic Markets
General Atlantic Interview
Investment Bank Compensation
Vale Bids for Xstrata
Brazil Special Report
Infrastructure Finance
Oil & Gas
M&A Outlook
Private Equity
Mexico Special Report
Airports
Structured Finance
Argentine Mining
Latin Finance - March 2008 - Latin Finance - March 2008
Latin Finance - March 2008 - Cover2
Latin Finance - March 2008 - Contents
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 2
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 3
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 4
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 5
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 6
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 7
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 8
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 9
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 10
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 11
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 12
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 13
Latin Finance - March 2008 - Man of the Year
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 15
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 16
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 17
Latin Finance - March 2008 - Peru Domestic Markets
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 19
Latin Finance - March 2008 - General Atlantic Interview
Latin Finance - March 2008 - Investment Bank Compensation
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 22
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 23
Latin Finance - March 2008 - Vale Bids for Xstrata
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 25
Latin Finance - March 2008 - Brazil Special Report
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 27
Latin Finance - March 2008 - Infrastructure Finance
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 29
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 30
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 31
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 32
Latin Finance - March 2008 - Oil & Gas
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 34
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 35
Latin Finance - March 2008 - M&A Outlook
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 37
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 38
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 39
Latin Finance - March 2008 - Private Equity
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 41
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 42
Latin Finance - March 2008 - Mexico Special Report
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 44
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 45
Latin Finance - March 2008 - Airports
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 47
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 48
Latin Finance - March 2008 - Structured Finance
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 50
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 51
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 52
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 53
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 54
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 55
Latin Finance - March 2008 - Argentine Mining
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 57
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 58
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 59
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 60
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 61
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 62
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 63
Latin Finance - March 2008 - 64
Latin Finance - March 2008 - Cover3
Latin Finance - March 2008 - Cover4
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