Latin Finance - May 2008 - 87

larry summers Share the Wealth by James Crombie s a key US Treasury official during the Tequila Crisis, Lawrence Summers has lived and breathed markets turmoil. But the storm ripping through developed world markets is something tough to contain and quantify. “The [US] recession is different to the standard inventory recession caused when Fed hits the breaks, having more to do with problems arising out of the financial sector and having to do with the bursting of asset price bubbles,” Summers, now Charles W. Eliot University Professor of Harvard University Kennedy School, tells LatinFinance. “It’s very difficult to predict the depth or length of the recession, but experience suggests that recessions of that kind, particularly when the financial sector is heavily distressed, can be protracted for a significant interval,” he adds. “It’s appropriate I think to be quite concerned.” Summers suggests looking at US credit spreads, particularly MBS, to gauge the health of the American economy, along with patterns of consumer lending. But as of late March, he said it was impossible to make a prediction with any degree of confidence about the length and depth of the crisis. “The decoupling idea has been a bit exaggerated. Some of what appears as decoupling in fact involves the integration of trade, or the integration of the economy as goods are processed in different stages in different countries. You see what looks like a lot of trade, but nonetheless, the United States remains the importer of last resort.” “The relative strength of Latin American currencies and Latin American economies through all this does mark a major change from the period when I served in government and really is a tribute to the depth of reforms put in place, particularly in Mexico and Brazil A The man who helped steer Mexico through the mid-1990s peso crisis is worried about the US but upbeat on LatAm. Income inequality remains a problem, however. “Anything can happen, but when you are talking about hundreds of billions of dollars of reserves, you’re in a different place.” He adds that LatAm performance thus far has been very encouraging, but warns, “If things were to unravel completely in the United States, all bets are off.” World Bank Soul Searching Summers joins the majority of markets watchers who believe the LatAm is on a much more solid footing, especially Mexico, Chile and Brazil. “Even if the US recession is somewhat more serious than most people expect, I think there’s reason to expect a fair amount of resilience,” he adds. Meanwhile, countries like Venezuela remain problematic. “In the Andean region, there’s room for plenty of anxiety,” adds Summers, putting Colombia, Ecuador and Venezuela in the negative camp. “The picture is very good in Mexico and Brazil and Chile. Argentina is iffy and there’s a large question of whether the Venezuela virus will be contagious.” Longer term, LatAm faces the same questions as the US: how to maintain commitment to global integration and a markets system, while also avoiding excesses of inequality, says Summers. “The question for Latin America is whether government by the people will also prove to be successful government for the people,” says the economist. “While there’s been considerable progress, I think that remains an important issue in most of the key countries,” says Summers, who concedes this will likely be a discussion topic for a long time. LF It’s appropriate to be concerned: Summers following their difficulties during the 1990s,” he adds. The economist notes a fundamental shift in the region’s main economies, comparing it to England and Italy leaving behind IMF programs in the 1970s. “It now looks like there’s an extremely good chance that Mexico and Brazil are making that kind of transition,” says Summers. Summers points to elevated reserve accumulation, the degree of international debt reduction, greater commitment to responsible fiscal and monetary policy and increased evidence that countries can maintain stability through a whole cycle – rather than just the upswing – as major differences. Skeptics say reserves can easily flee amid investor panic, but Summers counters that the scale is different now. May 2008 LATINFINANCE 87

Latin Finance - May 2008

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Latin Finance - May 2008

Latin Finance - May 2008
Contents
20 Years in Review
Markets Outlook
Awards - 20 Years of Excellence
Roger Thomas
Jose Olympio
Roberto Setubal
Bill Rhodes
William Rhodes
China and Latin America
Michael Pettis
Mohamed El-Erian
Nicholas Brady
Pedro Pablo Kuczynski
Brazilian Investment Banking
Maria Helena Santana
Fernando Henrique Cardoso
Henrique Meirelles
Arminio Fraga
Andres Velasco
José Pablo Arellano
Codelco
Eduardo Elsztain
Julio Torres
Mark Mobius
Larry Summers
Charles Dallara
Martin Schubert
Claudio Loser
Francisco Gil Diaz
Hans Humes
Francisco Gil Diaz
Therese Rabieh
Nina Shapiro
Enrique Garcia
Angel Gurria
Susan Segal
Martin Krause
Alberto Benavides
Hans Schulz
Lee Buchheit
Latin Finance - May 2008 - Latin Finance - May 2008
Latin Finance - May 2008 - Cover2
Latin Finance - May 2008 - Contents
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 2
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 3
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 4
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 5
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 6
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 7
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 8
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 9
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 10
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 11
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 12
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 13
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 14
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 15
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 16
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 17
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 20 Years in Review
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 19
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 20
Latin Finance - May 2008 - Markets Outlook
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 22
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 23
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 24
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 25
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 26
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 27
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 28
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 29
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 30
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 31
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 32
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 33
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 34
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 35
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 36
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 37
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 38
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 39
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 40
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 41
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 42
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 43
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 44
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 45
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 46
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 47
Latin Finance - May 2008 - Awards - 20 Years of Excellence
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 49
Latin Finance - May 2008 - Roger Thomas
Latin Finance - May 2008 - Jose Olympio
Latin Finance - May 2008 - Roberto Setubal
Latin Finance - May 2008 - William Rhodes
Latin Finance - May 2008 - China and Latin America
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 55
Latin Finance - May 2008 - Michael Pettis
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 57
Latin Finance - May 2008 - Mohamed El-Erian
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 59
Latin Finance - May 2008 - Nicholas Brady
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 61
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 62
Latin Finance - May 2008 - Pedro Pablo Kuczynski
Latin Finance - May 2008 - Brazilian Investment Banking
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 65
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 66
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 67
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 68
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 69
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 70
Latin Finance - May 2008 - Maria Helena Santana
Latin Finance - May 2008 - Fernando Henrique Cardoso
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 73
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 74
Latin Finance - May 2008 - Henrique Meirelles
Latin Finance - May 2008 - Arminio Fraga
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 77
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 78
Latin Finance - May 2008 - Andres Velasco
Latin Finance - May 2008 - Codelco
Latin Finance - May 2008 - Eduardo Elsztain
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 82
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 83
Latin Finance - May 2008 - Julio Torres
Latin Finance - May 2008 - Mark Mobius
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 86
Latin Finance - May 2008 - Larry Summers
Latin Finance - May 2008 - Charles Dallara
Latin Finance - May 2008 - Martin Schubert
Latin Finance - May 2008 - Claudio Loser
Latin Finance - May 2008 - Hans Humes
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 92
Latin Finance - May 2008 - Francisco Gil Diaz
Latin Finance - May 2008 - Therese Rabieh
Latin Finance - May 2008 - Nina Shapiro
Latin Finance - May 2008 - Angel Gurria
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 97
Latin Finance - May 2008 - Susan Segal
Latin Finance - May 2008 - Martin Krause
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 100
Latin Finance - May 2008 - Alberto Benavides
Latin Finance - May 2008 - Hans Schulz
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 103
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 104
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 105
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 106
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 107
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 108
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 109
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 110
Latin Finance - May 2008 - Lee Buchheit
Latin Finance - May 2008 - 112
Latin Finance - May 2008 - Cover3
Latin Finance - May 2008 - Cover4
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/0319QMR
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/1218JYM
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/paraguay_2018
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/8320YTM
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/8465TBM
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/1476YBW
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/7835THM
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/8655TGL
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/0614IJP
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/ecuador_20170910
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/2713KNP
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/4982CFT
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/7803HWE
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/3829THA
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/7891MDD
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/7714JCR
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/5619CMK
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/6939ASL
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/1364ASF
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/0453DAS
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/0453DAS_supp
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/1304APV
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/7234GSD
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/1643XGS
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/9511JKM_supp
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/9511JKM
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/8745TNV
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/3629PBC
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/7466TBC_HSBC
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/7466TBC_supp
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/7466TBC
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/9463RVB
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/7345GPY
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/6398TVB
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/4899EXM_supp
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/4899EXM
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/3885CWS
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/45923GBC
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/67449NBD
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/46733NLP
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/78456HCL
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/89456RBM
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/22278HBL
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/2895YBM
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/9033TBM
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/8934TNP
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/costarica20130304
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/4672PNB
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/9377BKL
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/drmtest
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/drmtest2
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/5532LMC
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/9044TBM
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/4877RBC
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/3008JHV
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/3728YBC
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/9337KLM
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/5674GNJ
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/8330KMC
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/7663HCM
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/2319ZMB
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/7110MKL
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/8599FHG
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/4517HJK
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/7813GHB
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/1564FBM
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/8884HGV
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/7863SVB
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/5233SFB
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/5899SML
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/4311PMN
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/1366FBB
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/9355AXC
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/8559EBN
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/8244QXC
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/1779BBN
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/7144XVB
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/8971QGH
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/200805
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/200804
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/200803
https://www.nxtbookmedia.com