LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 19
Itau LataM MONItOR
Top Advances (May-June Ranking Indicators)
8%
* Brazil industrial production: The high year-over-year change
was due to the fact that the Carnival holiday took place in February last year and in March this year. Fundamentals, especially high
inventories and declining confidence, continue to point to a justmoderate performance of industrial activity in coming months.
* Brazil retail sales: Core retail sales grew above market expectations in January, but slightly below our forecast. We believe that
the high temperatures observed in Brazil during the beginning
of the year gave a positive contribution to the result. Broad retail
sales (including vehicles and construction material) increased 2.1%
mom/sa.
* Mexico industrial production: Industrial activity was led by
Manufacturing (2.5% year over year), while the main drag was
Construction (-2.5%).
7.2%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1.0%
1%
0%
Brazil
industrial
production
Feb yoy
(from -2.2%
in Jan to 5.0%
in Feb)
* Mexico´s monthly GDP growth: Mexico's economy continues to
be weak, even though we note that the bad weather in the U.S. may
have hurt the most recent activity numbers. However, the recovery
of the U.S. economy together with loose monetary and fiscal
policies will likely lead to a rebound ahead. We see growth of 3.0%
this year, which implies above-potential growth rates from 2Q14
to 4Q14.
0%
0.2%
0.1%
Mexico
Brazil
Brazil
Brazil
industrial
broad
unemployment real wage
production
retail sales
Feb 2014
growth
from Dec
Jan yoy
(from 4.9% in
Feb 2014
(-0.3% yoy) (from 2.9% in Jan to 5.1% yoy (from 3.3%
to Jan (0.7% Dec to 3.5%
in Feb,
in Jan to 3.4%
yoy)
in Jan)
seasonally
in Feb,
adjusted)
seasonally
adjusted)
Top Declines
* Chile GDP growth: Chile's economy grew weakly during the last
quarter of 2013, as investment continues to slow. Chile's economy
remained weak in February - we now estimate the IMACEC
(monthly proxy for GDP) to expand by 2.8% year over year in that
month. Specifically, the numbers suggest that private consumption
continues to lose momentum, in spite of a low unemployment
rate, indicating that it is also contributing to Chile's slowdown.
Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector remains sluggish.
0.6%
Chile GDP
growth yoy
2013/2012
(from 5.6%
to 4.0%)
Brazil 2015
inflation
forecast by Copom
(from 6.1%
for 2014 to 5.5%
for 2015)
Mexico monthly
GDP growth yoy
(from 1.1% in
Dec to 0.8% in Jan)
-0.2%
-0.3%
-0.4%
-0.6%
-0.6%
-0.8%
-1%
-1.2%
-1.4%
-1.6%
-1.6%
Notice: Itau LatAm Monitor is a regular information service supported by Itau and Itau BBA. The data displayed are selected and are derived from Itau BBA research.
For further information, consult www.itau.com.br/itaubba-en/economic-analysis/publications
http://www.itau.com.br/itaubba-en/economic-analysis/publications
http://www.itau.com.br/itaubba-en/economic-analysis/publications
LatinFinance - May/June 2014
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of LatinFinance - May/June 2014
Contents
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - Cover1
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - Cover2
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - Contents
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 2
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 3
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 4
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 5
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 6
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 7
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 8
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 9
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 10
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 11
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 12
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 13
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 14
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 15
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 16
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 17
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 18
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 19
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 20
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 21
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 22
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 23
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 24
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 25
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 26
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 27
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 28
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 29
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 30
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 31
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 32
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 33
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 34
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 35
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 36
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 37
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 38
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 39
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 40
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 41
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 42
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 43
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 44
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 45
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 46
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 47
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - 48
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - Cover3
LatinFinance - May/June 2014 - Cover4
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https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/paraguay_2018
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https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/78456HCL
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/89456RBM
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https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/9033TBM
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