LatinFinance - March/April 2014 - 45

Itau LataM MONItOR
Top Advances (Mar-Apr Ranking Indicators)
* Brazil's November surprise index rose slightly to 0.16 (from 0.14
in October), as three important indicators came out stronger than
expected. First, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.6%, or 5.1%
seasonally adjusted, the lowest result since the beginning of the
series. Secondly, industrial production expanded 0.4% year-overyear while the market expected a contraction of 0.8%. Third, core
retail sales increased by an above-than-expected 7.0% year-overyear in November (consensus was 6.2%).
* Brazil: The increase in the daily average of non-earmarked loans
was caused by real gains of 7.8% mom/sa in new consumer loans
and 3.3% mom/sa in new corporate loans.
* Chile retail sales: This number highlights that consumption
continues to be resistant to the GDP slowdown, consistent with
still tight labor market conditions. On the other hand, mining
slowed to 3.4% (from 6.7% in November) and manufacturing
was up by a weak 0.2% year over year (-4.6% qoq/saar). Building
permits fell by 4.8% year over year, which together with weak
imports of capital goods (-38% year over year in December), hints
that investment weakened even further during 4Q13.

15%

14.3%

10%
8.0%

7.8%

7.0%
4.8%

Brazil
surprise
Index
Nov mom

Brazil
sales
of cars
Jan mom

Brazil
non-earmarked
consumer
loans daily
average
Dec mom/sa

Brazil
Industrial
Production
Dec mom

Mexico
manufacturing
exporrts
Dec mom

Itau ICI
World
Commodity
Index
Dec mom

Brazil
manufacturing
exports
Jan mom

-2.6%

-2.2%

-1.7%

Chile
retail
sales
Nov yoy

Peru
GDP
Dec yoy

Top Declines
* Chile posted a lower surprise index of -0.22, down from -0.10
in October. Demand-side indicators suggest that the slowdown
is led by investment-related sectors, leading to lower capitalgoods imports and sluggish housing activity. In addition, high
household consumption amid a tight labor market has widened
the demand-supply gap.
* Mexico: December showed weak manufacturing exports, down
2.2% from November. Manufacturing exports fell 1% qoq/saar
during 4Q13, following a 9.5% increase in 3Q13. Auto exports
contracted 4.5% month over month (-12% qoq/saar), while
non-auto exports fell 1.1% (+4.5% qoq/saar). On the import side,
consumer goods purchases ex-fuel fell 0.5% from November
(-9.8% qoq/saar), while capital goods imports posted a recovery
(+5.7% qoq/saar) but after an 8.2% contraction the previous
quarter.
* Brazil: Exports were sluggish, at $16 billion, marking a second
consecutive decline in seasonally-adjusted terms (-1.7%).
Industrial production declined 3.5% mom/sa in December,
the largest contraction since January 2009. The decrease of
investment and inventory adjustment led the IP contraction at
the end of last year.

Chile
surprise
index Nov

-3.5%

-50%

-100%

-120%

-150%

Notice: Itau LatAm Monitor is a regular information service supported by Itau and Itau BBA. The data displayed are selected and are derived from Itau BBA research.
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LatinFinance - March/April 2014

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of LatinFinance - March/April 2014