Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 55

Caribbean Special Report Economic Quicksand Global crisis has spanked the Caribbean and the bad news just keeps coming. Amid contracting liquidity, the region is pained by bruised tourism revenues and battered remittances. by Taina Rosa lobal economic slowdown comes at a perilous time for the fragile Caribbean. Evaporating liquidity, declining tourism and flopping remittances come on the heels of storms and an increase in food prices. This all puts the brakes on regional growth. BCP Securities expects Caribbean GDP expansion to slow to 0.4% in 2009 from 3.5% in 2008 and 7.0% in 2007. The biggest contractions in GDP, the shop estimates, will happen in Jamaica, set to shrink by 3.5% this year. “Most Caribbean countries are highly exposed to the US economy as the US is their main trading and investment partner, and as a result, some regional economies are expected to contract substantially,” says Neeraj Arora, LatAm strategy associate at JPMorgan. The region’s largest economy, the Dominican Republic, saw GDP increase 5.3% in 2008, but it is not expected to see any growth this year, according to JPMorgan. In 2010, the shop forecasts, the country’s GDP should expand by 3.0%. “The second half will probably be tough. A rebound will depend on how the global economy evolves,” says Fitch senior director Theresa Paiz-Fredel. She adds that before the downturn, the Dominican government projected GDP would grow about 3.0% in 2009, from 5.3% in 2008. Trinidad & Tobago is seen as the Caribbean country best prepared to weather the downturn, despite ongoing troubles related to the CL Financial collapse. The major exporter of oil and natural gas should benefit from a rebound in commodities. JPMorgan expects T&T’s GDP to stay flat in 2009, before swelling by 2.5% in 2010. Between 2003 and 2007, T&T’s GDP expanded by an average 9.2% and an estimated 3.5% in 2008, it adds. JPMorgan paints a gloomier picture for Jamaica. The country’s GDP contracted 0.6% in 2008 and the shop agrees with BCP that it will shrink by 3.5% this year. JPMorgan forecasts a 1.0% GDP bounce in 2010. LatinFinance 55 G Also in this section CORPORATE FINANCE MULTILATERAL LENDING DIGICEL PROFILE page 60 page 64 page 65 UPDATE For daily news on the Caribbean, see www.latinfinance.com > Sept/October 2009
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Latin Finance - September/October 2009

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Latin Finance - September/October 2009

Latin Finance - September/October 2009
Contents
Investment Banking Survey
Who Said That?
OTPP Investment Strategy
Central Bank Scorecards
Brazil Liability Management
Real Estate Equity Resurrected
Structured Finance Forecasts
Grim Outlook. Reform Required
Banorte Seeks to Grow
Peru Spending Hits a Block
BCP Sees Better Days
Caribbean Investment Report
Sustainable Banking
Legal Services Survey
Parting Shot
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - Latin Finance - September/October 2009
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - Cover2
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - Contents
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 2
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 3
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 4
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 5
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 6
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 7
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 8
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 9
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 10
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 11
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 12
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 13
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - Investment Banking Survey
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - Who Said That?
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 16
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 17
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 18
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 19
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 20
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 21
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 22
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - OTPP Investment Strategy
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 24
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 25
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - Central Bank Scorecards
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 27
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 28
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - Brazil Liability Management
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - Real Estate Equity Resurrected
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 31
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 32
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 33
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 34
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 35
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 36
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - Structured Finance Forecasts
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 38
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - Grim Outlook. Reform Required
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 40
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 41
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 42
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 43
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 44
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - Banorte Seeks to Grow
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - Peru Spending Hits a Block
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 47
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 48
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 49
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - BCP Sees Better Days
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 51
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 52
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 53
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 54
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - Caribbean Investment Report
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 56
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 57
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 58
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 59
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 60
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 61
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 62
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 63
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 64
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 65
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 66
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - Sustainable Banking
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 68
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - Legal Services Survey
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 70
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 71
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 72
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 73
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 74
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 75
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 76
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 77
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 78
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - Parting Shot
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - 80
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - Cover3
Latin Finance - September/October 2009 - Cover4
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