LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 23

Says ter-minassian: “next year, the risk of a worse outcome is
significant. the government will have a difficult act to balance on the
one hand the risk of a more substantial deceleration in growth and
on the other had the acceleration of inflation.”
She says authorities are likely to emphasize avoiding a pickup
in inflation “because that hits the working class and the emerging
middle class, which is very much the power base of the current
administration.”
if macroeconomic performance continues to deteriorate beyond
the elections, the risk of stagflation will increase, says Baumgarten.
“if Dilma and her lot win [next year’s presidential elections] and do
not improve the macro-management, i think there will be a bout of
bad humor towards Brazil.”
“the institutional deterioration, the lack of strategy, an inefficient
and corrupt political system, and bad economic management may
lead us towards quite a difficult fiscal, external and inflationary
position. in this event, our position would be similar to india’s
[today],” adds Baumgarten, who is also a director at the liberal think
tank casa das Garças.
But the dynamic is further complicated by the external
environment, and in particular the prospect in the year ahead that
US monetary policy normalizes. emerging markets have not had to
work hard to attract capital over the past decade, thanks to strong
growth, attractive yields and generally loose monetary policy in
the developed world. But as the US fed moves to withdraw its
extraordinary monetary support, the tide is once again turning.
the fear is that a disorderly withdrawal of capital when the
US eventually tightens policy could place Brazil in a dangerous
predicament — especially if it loses its investment grade rating.
“this country is running a current account deficit of 3.4% of
GDP with growth at 2.5%. this is not a good underlying situation,”
says ter-minassian. “if Brazil continues to hum along without any
improvement to its growth potential, people are going to start
worrying.”
She says that government policy in the run-up to elections
could have major market implications. “obviously if [the Brazilian
government] showed a very loose fiscal stance, if their current
balancing of priorities between growth and inflation were to change
dramatically in favor of fiscal stimulus, then all bets are off.”
Investment hopes
the government, meanwhile, has ramped up infrastructure
spending as Brazil prepares to host the 2014 World cup and the 2016
olympic Games.
authorities hope for a surge in investment on the back of its 180
billion real concession program in logistics, which kicked off in midSeptember (See Brazil Infrastructure, page 58). mantega has given
a sop to the private sector by allowing for higher rates of return in
a bid to attract investors. He tells LatinFinance he is adamant that
investment will “grow two times or three times GDP growth over the
next few years”.
His colleague luciano coutinho, president of the government
development bank BnDeS, also says the concession program could
lift the economy sharply. “the conclusion of an investment cycle
in concessions will contribute decisively to boost the aggregate
investment and savings rate,” he says.
Brazil’s investment rate is due to increase from 19% of GDP at
present to more than 22% of GDP within five years, according to
BnDeS projections. every dollar invested in infrastructure will inject
four in the economy, according to coutinho.

TERESA TER-MINASSIAN, EX-IMF

 “This counTry is running a
currenT accounT deficiT of
3.4% of gdP wiTh growTh aT
2.5%. This is noT a good
underlying siTuaTion.
wiThouT any imProvemenT
To iTs growTh PoTenTial,
PeoPle are going To sTarT
worrying”

But an investment boom would first demand a recovery in
confidence, which in turn also depends on the credibility of the
macroeconomic policy. and many observers remain skeptical.
“i’m not sure they will get the investment they need,” says crédit
agricole’s martin.
What’s at stake
Brazil now faces choice a stark choice, he says. “this country can
either limp along at 2% for years or achieve more than 4.5%. Brazil
may have lived in illusion for 10 years against a background of a
supportive external environment with high prices for steel, soya and
other commodities. now the future is in their hands. they can go
on like this for two or three years without a major crisis. there is no
sense of urgency.
“But if they want to take off, they have to tackle infrastructure,
downsize the state, revise the structure of public expenditure and
focus more on investment rather than current spending. if they do
not do this, Brazil is not going to collapse, but it is going to fall below
its growth potential,” he says.
Brazil’s problem, says levy-Yeyati, is ultimately one of growth.
moreover, persistently weak expansion of an economy struggling
to support the demands of a restive population could spell trouble
ahead.
“Brazil was one of the poster children of the new emerging middle
class,” he says. “at the beginning, people were happy enough to get
out of poverty, get better salaries, but that period is over. People
want better goods and services.”
Such improvements will be difficult in an environment of
stubbornly low growth, which is unlikely to exceed 2% “for the
foreseeable future,” he says.
While this may not result in economic crisis, it is likely to mean
that the image of Brazil as a dynamic leader among emerging market
economies is now a thing of the past. Says levy-Yeyati: “they will
keep disappointing both international observers and their own
people.” LF

September/October 2013 - l atinfina nce.com 23


http://www.LATINFINANCE.COM

LatinFinance - September/October 2013

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of LatinFinance - September/October 2013

Latin Finance - September/October 2013
Contents
Front notes
People news
Debt news
Equity news
M&A news
After the storm
Advantage Mexico
Treading water
New structures
Mexico
Regaining the Initiative
Deficit Ahead
Building up
Switching Course
Brazil
Work in progress
Extreme makeover
Mind the gap
Brazilian life insurance
Andean
Breaking the fall
Reaching out
Market movers
Paraguay
Smoothing the cycles
Thinking big
Parting Shot
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - Latin Finance - September/October 2013
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - Cover2
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - Contents
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 2
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 3
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - Front notes
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 5
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - People news
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 7
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - Debt news
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 9
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - Equity news
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 11
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - M&A news
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 13
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 14
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 15
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 16
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 17
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 18
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 19
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 20
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 21
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 22
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 23
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - After the storm
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 25
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - Advantage Mexico
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 27
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - Treading water
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 29
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 30
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - New structures
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 32
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 33
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 34
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 35
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 36
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 37
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 38
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 39
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 40
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - Mexico
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - Regaining the Initiative
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 43
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - Deficit Ahead
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 45
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - Building up
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 47
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 48
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 49
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 50
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 51
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - Switching Course
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 53
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 54
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 55
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 56
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - Brazil
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - Work in progress
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 59
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 60
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 61
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - Extreme makeover
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 63
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 64
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 65
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 66
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - Mind the gap
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 68
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 69
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - Brazilian life insurance
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 71
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 72
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - Andean
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - Breaking the fall
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 75
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 76
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - Reaching out
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 78
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 79
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 80
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 81
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - Market movers
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - Paraguay
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - Smoothing the cycles
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 85
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - Thinking big
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - 87
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - Parting Shot
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - Cover3
LatinFinance - September/October 2013 - Cover4
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/0319QMR
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/1218JYM
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/paraguay_2018
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/8320YTM
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/8465TBM
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/1476YBW
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/7835THM
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/8655TGL
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/0614IJP
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/ecuador_20170910
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/2713KNP
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/4982CFT
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/7803HWE
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/3829THA
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/7891MDD
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/7714JCR
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/5619CMK
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/6939ASL
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/1364ASF
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/0453DAS
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/0453DAS_supp
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/1304APV
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/7234GSD
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/1643XGS
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/9511JKM_supp
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/9511JKM
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/8745TNV
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/3629PBC
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/7466TBC_HSBC
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/7466TBC_supp
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/7466TBC
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/9463RVB
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/7345GPY
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/6398TVB
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/4899EXM_supp
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/4899EXM
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/3885CWS
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/45923GBC
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/67449NBD
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/46733NLP
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/78456HCL
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/89456RBM
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/22278HBL
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/2895YBM
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/9033TBM
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/8934TNP
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/costarica20130304
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/4672PNB
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/9377BKL
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/drmtest
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/drmtest2
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/5532LMC
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/9044TBM
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/4877RBC
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/3008JHV
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/3728YBC
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/9337KLM
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/5674GNJ
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/8330KMC
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/7663HCM
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/2319ZMB
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/7110MKL
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/8599FHG
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/4517HJK
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/7813GHB
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/1564FBM
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/8884HGV
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/7863SVB
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/5233SFB
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/5899SML
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/4311PMN
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/1366FBB
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/9355AXC
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/8559EBN
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/8244QXC
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/1779BBN
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/7144XVB
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/8971QGH
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/200805
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/200804
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/latinfinance/200803
https://www.nxtbookmedia.com