The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 73

PREDICTING THE WEATHER for the Roanoke Valley is
not an easy task. Although today's forecasters have surface
maps, computer models, satellites, radar, weather patterns,
historical date, etc., forecasts are still educated guesses.
In that context, we thought it might be interesting to
compare next-day forecasts from several sources to compare
predictions. Information was collected from five sources: Our
three local network TV stations and two internet web sites,
AccuWeather.com and weather.com (The Weather Channel).
Actual daily temperature data was pulled from the National
Weather Service and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration's (NOAA) web site.
The scoring: A point was added to each forecaster's score
for every degree they were off. The source with the fewest
points would be deemed most accurate. Forecasts were recorded
between 5 and 6 p.m. each evening. On rare occasions if a
weather telecast was not available due to lengthy extended
programming, the source's website was used to collect the
weather prediction.
The results were very close! Remember, the points accumulated over a 30-day period. The Weather Channel (weather.
com) had the most accurate predictions. All of the forecasters were accurate in predicting rain, wind, and sunny or
cloudy conditions.
Total points for each (low score wins):
The Weather Channel: 83
WSLS 10: 92
WDBJ 7: 93
AccuWeather: 93
WSET13: 106
For now it looks like we are getting very good information
relating to current and next-day conditions.

THE SEVEN-DAY FORECAST
Many people rely on extended forecasts for planning outdoor
events. Realistically, the notion of an extended seven-day forecast, in my humblest of opinions, is a bit of a stretch. Last year,
it was somewhat frustrating watching a future sunny 0 percent
chance of rain day deteriorate into a cloudy, rainy day as the
day got closer and closer. Out of desperation, having cancelled
numerous golf outings due to this phenomenon, I have come
up with a working formula. Let's imagine the future day has
a projected forecast calling for abundant sunshine with a 10
percent chance of precipitation. Make a note of the 10 percent
... as the day approaches that will increase slowly to 60 percent
or higher. Conversely, a seven-day prediction of 60 to 90 percent chance of rain will result in 10 percent or less when the
actual day arrives. Obviously I use the higher percentage rain
days to plan outdoor functions. -SS

THEROANOKER.COM

JULY/AUGUST 2015 | 73


http://www.AccuWeather.com http://www.weather.com http://www.weather.com http://www.weather.com

The Roanoker - July/August 2015

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Roanoker - July/August 2015

Top Docs 2015 - ENHANCED FOR DIGITAL
Uber - New Way to Ride - ENHANCED FOR DIGITAL
Best Days Under the Sun: Outdoor Entertaining Guide
Outdoor Space: The Smith Home
Wait, Beer Terroir?
Who’s Getting the Weather Right?
Let’s Go to the Lake!
Let’s Go to NoVa!
The Perfect Picnic - ENHANCED FOR DIGITAL
Beamer’s 25 - ENHANCED FOR DIGITAL
From The Editor / Worth a Click
The Calendar
The Gist
The Flavor
The Dish: Dining Guide
Where Are They Now?
2015 Education Guide
Vinton!
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - Intro
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - Cover1
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - Cover2
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 3
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 4
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 5
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 6
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 7
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 8
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 9
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - From The Editor / Worth a Click
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 11
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - The Calendar
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 13
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 14
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 15
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 16
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 17
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - The Gist
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 19
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 20
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - The Flavor
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - Top Docs 2015 - ENHANCED FOR DIGITAL
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 23
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 24
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 25
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 26
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 27
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 28
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 29
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 30
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 31
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 32
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 33
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 34
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 35
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 36
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 37
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 38
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 39
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 40
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 41
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - Uber - New Way to Ride - ENHANCED FOR DIGITAL
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 43
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 44
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 45
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - Best Days Under the Sun: Outdoor Entertaining Guide
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 47
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 48
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 49
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 50
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 51
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 52
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 53
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 54
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - Outdoor Space: The Smith Home
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 56
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 57
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 58
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 59
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 60
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 61
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - Wait, Beer Terroir?
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 63
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 64
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 65
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 2015 Education Guide
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 67
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 68
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 69
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 70
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 71
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - Who’s Getting the Weather Right?
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 73
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 74
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - Vinton!
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - V2
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - V3
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - V4
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - V5
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - V6
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - V7
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - V8
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - V9
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - V10
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - V11
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - V12
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - V13
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - V14
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - V15
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - V16
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - V17
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - V18
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - V19
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - V20
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - V21
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - V22
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - V23
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - V24
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - V25
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - V26
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - V27
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - V28
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - V29
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - V30
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - V31
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - V32
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - Let’s Go to the Lake!
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 76
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 77
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 78
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 79
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 80
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - Let’s Go to NoVa!
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 82
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 83
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 84
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 85
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - The Perfect Picnic - ENHANCED FOR DIGITAL
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 87
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 88
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 89
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - Beamer’s 25 - ENHANCED FOR DIGITAL
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 91
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 92
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 93
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 94
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 95
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - 96
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - The Dish: Dining Guide
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - Where Are They Now?
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - Cover3
The Roanoker - July/August 2015 - Cover4
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