i3 - September/October 2016 - 42

Business

By Shawn DuBravac, Ph.D
T H E EC O N O M I ST

Five Things I Expect for the
2016 Holiday Season

42

SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2016

2

Black Friday
will be more
pronounced
than before. But
Black Friday will
be less meaningful than in the
past. It now runs
a week long and
it defines if the
holiday season
is good or bad.
Expect it to be a
very strong focus
in 2016, given the
later start to the
holiday season.
The pre-Black
Friday period will
see heavy promotions. Physical
stores that have
experimented
with early opening
on Thanksgiving
evening, and
even 24-hour
sales events
will cut back to
more traditional
Friday morning
openings. Filling
their place will be
focused online
promotions
that will ramp
up Wednesday
evening before
Thanksgiving,
and throughout
Thanksgiving
day and into
Friday as physical
stores open.

3

"Manufactured
Holidays" will help
define the holiday
season. Last year,
many retailers
released their holiday
advertisements two
weeks in advance
of Black Friday.
However, in 2015
they also offered
Black Friday pricing
on some of the items
in their circular. I
expect the same to
happen again this
year. These promotions will come right
after the election.
I call these sales
events, "manufactured holidays." They
are traditional holidays but consumers
anxiously anticipate
these sales events,
even when they
might not initially
expect to shop these
sales. Amazon, with
Prime Day, has shown
the effectiveness of
these manufactured
holidays. I expect
others to look for
similar promotional
opportunities. Flash
sales and other
manufactured sales
periods will help keep
up momentum and
consumer attention
on periods outside of
Black Friday.

4

Online shopping
will denominate
this year's
holiday season
for retailers.
Thanksgiving has
become one of the
most important
online sales days
of the year and
Black Friday
has become a
hugely important
online week.
Promotions, from
free shopping to
same day delivery,
will be a key purchase motivation
for consumers.
Retailers will also
promote in store
pick-up. Online
sales growth will
far surpass all
other channels.
I expect in store
sales growth
will be slightly
negative.

5

Connected
devices will be
a key holiday
theme this year.
Manufacturers
are producing,
retailers will
promote, and
consumers will be
buying tech that
connects devices
and other objects
(i.e. consumer
IoT). We also will
see "expanding
ecosystems"
with 4K Ultra HD
and virtual reality
being popular for
the holidays.

Check out CTA.
tech/holiday for
our holiday and
Black Friday
research during
the holiday
season.

PHOTOGRAPH BY ANDREW F KAZMIERSKI/ISTOCK

1

Expect a
later start to
the traditional
holiday season.
Two years
ago, retailers
attempted to pull
the holiday season
into September
but these efforts
weren't well
received by consumers. Last year,
the bulk of holiday
advertising started
on November 1st,
which I believe
will mark the
beginning of the
holiday shopping
season from now
on. However,
this year will be
a little different.
Elections, especially presidential
ones, tend to
crowd out other
advertising by
bidding up the
cost of advertising
spots. I expect the
same to happen
this year. With
Election Day on
November 8, I
expect holiday
promotions to
be delayed until
Wednesday,
November 9 and
will start with an
instant crescendo.

I T I S I N N O VAT I O N
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i3 - September/October 2016

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