i3 - September/October 2017 - 43

By Jack Cutts

BY T H E N U M B E RS

New Technologies Take
Center Stage
lowly but surely, we are witnessing a shift in the
consumer technology industry. This is a passing of
the baton not in the total industry revenue sense, but
more the beginnings of a shift in share-of-mind and shareof-voice from mainline devices like smartphones and laptops
to smart home devices and digital assistants.

istock/ mikkelwilliam

 S 

It's hard to discern whether digital
assistants, for example, are merely
a stand-in for some overarching
technology that we simply haven't
thought of yet or whether the product
is ready to enter every U.S. household.
Conversely, it is the very ubiquity of
the smartphone and wireless internet
that has ushered in the emergence of
the smart home as another emerging
juggernaut. Is it possible that the digital
assistant is the missing piece of the
smart home puzzle? Can the digital
assistant help tie everything together
using just your voice? Or perhaps the
future of the smart home is artificial
intelligence-based, meaning our voices
won't be needed at all after a while.
In its biannual Sales & Forecast report
released in July 2017, CTA estimates that
makers of digital assistants will sell just over
The ubiquity of
11 million of the devices
the smartphone
in 2017, up from 7.2 miland wireless
lion in 2016. All told,
internet has
ushered in the
digital assistants are
emergence of the
forecast to bring home
smart home.
$1.3 billion in 2017 and to
eclipse $4 billion by 2021.
Unlike digital assistants, the smart
home category takes many forms and has
a lot of moving parts. One of the category's strengths is that many smart home
solutions are modular in nature allowing
consumers to dip a toe into smart home
features without tearing open walls and
breaking the bank. Of course, this flexibility generally comes with the need to
buy into an existing smart home
C TA . t e c h / i 3

ecosystem, even if you're only automating one or two functions in the home.
CTA's research predicts that, among
the main smart home categories, smart
locks and doorbells is the sub-category
that will lead the way in year-over-year
unit growth at 72 percent (shipping
3.7 million units). Overall the largest
sub-category on a unit basis is the smart
home system, which are smart home
hubs packaged with a certain array of
units for placement around the home.
Smart home systems will ship 6.8 million

Business

units in 2017, up from 4.5 million in 2016.
IP/Wi-Fi cameras have also enjoyed large
gains in unit volume since 2016, shipping
five million units - a 70 percent
improvement over 2016's tally. By 2021,
CTA expects consumers to demand nearly
57 million units of smart home products
to the tune of almost $6.5 billion in revenue for the industry, representing triple
the revenue of 2016 in just six years.
No one can doubt the societal importance of the smartphone. Nor can one
discount the prowess of the laptop or
desktop PC for getting stuff done.
However, as the industry marches forward, it's inevitable that the devices of
yesterday (even ones that are still in our
pockets and work bags) will begin to fade
into the background. These devices are
no less crucial or productive than in years
past, but they now share the stage with
new technologies on the scene.
The smartphone era has been a golden
age for the consumer technology industry.
Fortunately for the industry, even as it
fades slightly into the background, the
smartphone is helping pave the way for the
next wave of devices that will shape our
lives for the next decade and beyond. ■

CTA'S SALES & FORECAST REPORT: ESTIMATES FOR SMART HOME GROWTH

$

1.3 BILLION

Expected
revenue for digital
assistant sales
in 2017

4

$ BILLION

Expected
revenue for digital
assistants sales
in 2021

70 %

Increase in unit
volume of IP/Wi-Fi
cameras over the
last year

3X

Increase in consumer
demand for smart
home products
by 2021
SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2017

43


http://www.CTA.tech/research http://www.cta.tech.com

i3 - September/October 2017

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i3 - September/October 2017 - Cover1
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i3 - September/October 2017 - Contents
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