i3 - May/June 2018 - 51

By Steve Koenig

Business

M A R K E T B E AT

AR/VR: Separating Innovation
from Science Fiction

rnest Cline's novel Ready Player One, set in the year 2045,
describes a dystopian future where people prefer to spend
their time immersed in an online virtual reality (VR)
world called the OASIS. Cline's work simultaneously critiques and
celebrates online gaming, while also raising interesting questions
about the future possibilities of VR and its cousin, augmented
reality (AR). But what does the arrival of these technologies mean
for us as an industry and as consumers?
Here in 2018, both technologies are
poised for mass adoption although their
journeys originated from different markets. AR found its footing in B2B markets
such as manufacturing, through technologies like Glass 2.0. But an emerging array
of AR apps on smartphones is fostering
AR's leap into the consumer realm. AR
app development kits like ARKit (iOS)
and ARCore (Android) are providing the
tools that will ultimately refashion consumers' mobile experiences into a headsup AR orientation.
Meanwhile, VR quickly pivoted beyond
gaming and entertainment pursuits to
find altogether new use cases in the commercial and industrial sector-think
brand-marketing, engineering and education. And recently, the excitement surrounding VR for entertainment is being
rekindled thanks to the arrival of new,
low-cost standalone headsets like
Oculus Go and Lenovo's Mirage Solo
that debuted at CES 2018.

Drew Graham/Unsplash

Gaining Speed

CTA's industry forecast (January 2018)
shows the market for AR/VR headsets
will gather momentum this year as
these new products and others like
Magic Leap One enter the sales channel. In 2018, AR/VR headsets will grow
25 percent on a volume basis to nearly
4.9 million units, generating more than
$1.2 billion in wholesale revenue.
However, 2019 represents an inflection
C TA . t e c h / i 3

point with shipment volumes increasing 60 percent year-over-year to 7.8
million units. Data from CTA's consumer research supports this storyline.
CTA's Augmented Reality and Virtual
Reality: Consumer Sentiments study,
conducted in November 2017, found
two-thirds (66 percent) of U.S. online
adults had experienced or were familiar
with VR; however, only 25 percent said
the same of AR. Despite the difference
in familiarity, consumers were equally
favorable to AR and VR across
difference use cases.
For example, consumers favored
("very favorable" and "favorable") VR as
an education tool for children (58 percent), to view live performances (51
percent), sporting events (48 percent),
and to explore vacation destinations
(63 percent). Consumer favorability for
AR was equally strong to support people with disabilities (63 percent), to
support first-responders (61 percent),

to support education and training
(58 percent) and greater than 50 percent for different shopping scenarios.
Aligning with CTA's forecast, more
than one-third of U.S. online adults see
themselves adopting AR over the next
two years for various uses like navigation, shopping and education. On the
VR front, entertainment use cases such
as movies (45 percent), video games
(40 percent) and marketing/promotions
(35 percent) continue to be the top
three preferred consumer VR uses in
the next two years, closely followed by
VR use in education and shopping.
The future appears bright for AR/
VR, but it's important to separate the
innovation these technologies represent from science fiction. AR and VR,
along with biometrics, AI, robotics,
digital therapeutics and many other
emerging technologies will level-up
our digital experiences and open-up
new possibilities for our economy,
jobs, and improving the human condition. I say game on!

In 2018, AR/VR
headsets will grow
25 percent on a volume
basis to nearly 4.9
million units, generating
more than $1.2 billion in
wholesale revenue.

MAY/JUNE 2018

http://www.CTA.tech/research http://cta.tech/i3

i3 - May/June 2018

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of i3 - May/June 2018