i3 - May/June 2019 - 22

than the past technology waves at a similar
period in the cycle. "If you were living in
the 1840s, 1890s and 1950s, innovations
were happening at what seemed like a
really rapid rate," he says.
Some skeptics maintain that Schwab's declaration of a fourth revolution isn't accurate.
They see it as the fifth or sixth or seventh time
that a technology breakthrough has been
called a revolution: think "space age," "atomic
age," "internet era" or "nanotech period."
Atkinson, an economist, does foresee a
next wave of activity "likely grounded in
artificial intelligence, more flexible and
capable robotics, autonomous devices,
and new materials."
He adds, "The conventional economics
view of innovation, is that innovation is linear in nature, something that happens
regularly." He explains, "technological
innovation appears to follow a pattern of
repeating 'S-curves' with waves of technology emerging and then stagnating before
the next new wave."
"This is what Joseph Schumpeter
argued when he wrote that, 'each of the
long waves in economic activity consists of
an industrial revolution' and the absorption of its effects," he adds. Atkinson evaluates this process to mean that, "We are
closer to the end than the middle of the
current digital technology S-curve, but
that the next innovation grounded in more
connected, autonomous and smart technologies will gain real momentum sometime in the next decade and begin to show
in the productivity statistics."
He concludes, the next tech wave "will be
so powerful that organizations and people
will be compelled to buy them en masse." He
is particularly enthusiastic about artificial
intelligence, with its potential for "learning,

"DO TANKS":
THE CENTERS
FOR THE
FOURTH
REVOLUTION
To expand understanding, the World Economic
Forum is opening Centers
around the globe, characterized as "do tanks"
rather than "think tanks."
The first Center for the
Fourth Industrial Revolution (C4IR) debuted in San
Francisco in 2016, with
subsequent locations in
Tokyo, Beijing, and, in October 2018, Maharashtra,
India; more sites are being planned. High-tech,
healthcare, financial and
utility companies, as well
as government organizations are underwriting the
public-private
initiative.
Based on analysis by Klaus
Schwab from the 2016
World Economic Forum.
WEF characterizes the
Centers as platforms "for
interaction, insights and
impact," enabling "multistakeholder dialogue and
concrete cooperation on
governance
challenges
and opportunities presented by advanced technologies." Among the goals of
each center is to develop
"an agile and human-centered model of technology
policy development and
implementation."

THE 4TH REVOLUTION AT CES 2019
The coming 4th Revolution was on display at CES 2019 with the latest in biometric technology at the Digital Health and Wellness Marketplace. Companies
showcased advances in speech recognition, iris scanning and fingerprint
technology. With developments in digital therapeutics, AI and remote
patient monitoring - digital health is addressing real world issues like opioid
dependence, mental illness and chronic disease. Other Marketplaces, such
as AR/VR, Accessibility, AI and Robotics, and Smart Cities also revealed how
the next revolution blurs the line between the physical and digital worlds.
22

MAY/JUNE 2019

understanding, reasoning and interaction."
"Exponential innovation would mean that
economic growth rates should be increasing
exponentially," Atkinson says. "But it is highly
likely that the pace of change over the next
decade will increase arithmetically - and
that will mean that organizations that don't
cope will be at greater risk of death."
The biggest impact will be on producers
- adopting technologies that boost efficiency
and replace workers. But there is no doubt
that these technologies will make consumers
lives easier - a robot to mow the lawn and
put away the dishes, AI to act as a personal
concierge, or much better health care and
awareness of our health, Atkinson predicts.
Meanwhile, Hanley of Deloitte believes
Industry 4.0 is revolutionary. "It represents a
shift in the way smart, connected technologies
interconnect, communicate and drive action
among themselves, organizations and people.
Beyond businesses, it affects society as well:
how people relate to each other and their daily
lives, using smart technologies to drive how
they communicate, work and live."

WHAT IF MACHINES GET
TOO SMART?

Inevitably, the "rise of the robots" (the title of
a 2016 book, as well as of a 1994 videogame)
raises concerns about technology's impact on
jobs and life in general. Some activists are
calling for a "kill switch" to turn off machines
that threaten human activities.
Atkinson of ITIF believes, "The last thing in
the world we should worry about are machines
that are out of control. Any company that
makes a machine that is out of control is a
company that will be out of business."
Schwab says, "A world of customer experiences, data-based services, and asset performance through analytics requires new
forms of collaboration, particularly given
the speed at which innovation and disruption are taking place."
The shift from simple digitization (Third
Revolution) to innovation based on combinations of technologies (Fourth Revolution) "is
forcing companies to re-examine the way they
do business. The bottom line, however, is the
same: business leaders need to understand
their changing environment."
I T I S I N N O VAT I O N
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