i3 - May/June 2020 - 19

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t's 2020, the year pundits predicted self-driving cars would be
mainstream. But those predictions have proved premature.
What happened? Experts say it
has been harder than anticipated
to meld all the elements needed to realize
the dream, including solving technology,
regulatory and business model puzzles.
Yet hold on, they say, the promise will
be kept. The new prophesy is for selfdriving cars to be conventional by 2030.

C TA . t e c h / i 3

i3_0520_Feature_SelfDrivingCars.indd 19

everyone recognized how potent that
approach could be in radically improving
the quality and reliability" of a self-driving car's perception and identification
"with the kind of computing power that
we have these days," Hodgson recalls.
Nevertheless, "this attitude that we had of
'trust the magic'" has disappeared with
some accidents, and presently "no regulator is going to take your word for it. You
have to formally prove a self-driving car's
safety. And it's very difficult to do that
with AI, due to the actual training process
is probabilistic, it's not deterministic." A
A MÉLANGE OF MISSES
lot of software development remains to be
"The reality is that development is still
done to make it verifiable, he says.
moving full steam ahead, but we're doing
Hodgson says, the cost of adding selfthings that have never been done before.
driving systems to cars has kept them out
It is proving to be more complex, it's more
of mainstream vehicles. He pegs the price
challenging and it's high risk," says Danny
to an automaker for SAE Level
Shapiro, senior director of
4 implementation (the ability
automotive at semiconductor "THERE ARE FOUR
for a car to drive itself under
maker NVIDIA Corp. in CHALLENGES FACING
certain conditions) at $4,000
Santa Clara, CA. "What we're
SELF-DRIVING CAR
"at scale," making it economitrying to ensure is that we
DEVELOPMENT
cally feasible in luxury vehicles
achieve the highest level of
only. As a result, many selfsafety that we possibly can," TODAY. THOSE ARE
driving cars have been relethrough technology and other TECHNICAL, THE REGgated to MaaS (mobility as a
means. "It ultimately comes ULATORY ENVIRONservice) fleets to generate
down to people believing that MENT, VERIFICATION,
recurring service-based revethe vehicle will be safe."
AND BUSINESS CASE
nues. Yet, "that's really chalThere are four challenges
RECONCILIATION."
lenging to do," and automakers
facing self-driving car devel"haven't been very inventive
opment today, says James JAMES HODGSON
here," he says.
Hodgson, principal analyst
"That shift toward mobility services was
for smart mobility and automotive at ABI
never something that was [automaker]Research in Wellingborough, U.K. Those
led. That was something they felt pushed
are technical ("the perception stack"), the
into, because if they didn't do it, the busiregulatory environment, verification ("to
ness would suddenly go to competitors
demonstrate robustly in a formalized way
from outside the traditional automotive
that your vehicle is safe"), and business
supply chain," such as newcomers like
case reconciliation.
Waymo. "They're happy to take their foot
"Ultimately there's an extraordinary
off the gas, sticking to that passenger vehiamount that can be achieved with camera
cle business model for as long as it's viable,"
sensors alone, to have a good semantic
Hodgson maintains.
understanding of what's happening"
ABI forecasts that SAE Level 3 and
around a vehicle, Hodgson says. "But there
Level 4 luxury cars will be in the marketare still a few blind spots," he adds. While
place around 2023-24, with mid-priced
there are companion sensors competing to
vehicles following in 2026-27. It will be
augment cameras, the artificial intelligence
the end of this decade when mass-market
(AI) and "deep learning" that makes sense
vehicles are equipped with self-driving
of what's seen is not always sufficient.
technology, and this will be a $1,000
"A couple of years ago there was a big
option, Hodgson says. "It's going to be an
push in AI and deep learning and
MAY/JUNE 2020

5/7/20 2:19 PM

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i3 - May/June 2020

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