AAIA Factbook 2010 - (Page 17)

Census revIeW anD 2010 foreCasT assuMPTIons Census Review: The channel forecast model was created by IHS Global Insight in 2002 and was based on the 1997 Economic Census data. In 2008, it was updated to include the 2002 Economic Census data and during that update, the output of the model was examined to determine its accuracy and where potential improvements to the forecast could be made. In reviewing the total market output, the model proved to be very accurate, but in examining the output at the individual channel level, it was clear that in some cases the model was overstating the growth while in others it was understating, and there were also cases where the totals were accurate but not for the reasons the model was predicting. The model has now been revised to better reflect the aftermarket sales through these channels. For example, the New Car Dealer channel is one such channel where the forecast annual growth rate has been reduced based on the latest data, while Gas Stations without Convenience Stores has also had its growth rate lowered and seen it’s absolute level revised down. Gas Stations with Convenience stores is a channel where the growth rate has been increased and seen its absolute level increased, as aftermarket sales through this channel are stronger than previously forecast. Lastly, channels like Auto Parts Stores and Tire Dealers have seen only minor changes to their absolute level, but their growth rates are lower. These two channels are examples where the model was overestimating annual growth, but at the same time, the census data has shown that the percentage of sales from these channels to the general public has increased, therefore offsetting some of the slower growth. It is assumed that the percentage of sales to the general public has stabilized and therefore a lower growth is now expected. These changes highlight some of the benefits to the update of the channel forecast model, which was always providing a good measure of the industry as a whole, and which IHS Global Insight now feels is providing even greater accuracy at the detailed channel level. Forecast Assumptions: Market changes that began in the 2nd half of 2008 resulted in a full year estimate of just 0.2 percent growth for the automotive aftermarket for the full year. Many of those market forces have worsened in 2009 and will have a significant impact on the aftermarket forecast. However, there are also positive forces in the market that will help to limit the impact on the industry and help the rebound expected in 2010: • Positive Impacts: m Lowered new automotive sales add short-term boost due to greater need to repair older vehicles that are no longer being replaced m Falling energy and food prices increase disposable income m Fiscal stimulus plan should start to show results in late 2009 through 2010 m GDP growth should resume by Q4 2009, with real GDP growth of 1.4 percent for 2010 • Negative Impacts: m High unemployment and falling consumer confidence reduce consumer spending, miles driven m Declines in stock and home values lowering consumer wealth m Despite growth expected for Q4, real GDP decline of 3.5 percent forecast for all of 2009 m Unemployment will peak at over 10 percent in 2010 The net impact of these changes is that the U.S. automotive aftermarket will contract in 2009 1.2 percent as the falling economy and its impact on miles driven and consumer spending will outweigh the forces working for the industry. However, as the economy rebounds in 2010, there will be significant pent up demand for aftermarket related products and services and growth of 4.5 percent is forecast, which is significant but due to the poor results of the past two years, is only 3.3 percent higher than the 2007 market total. 17 2010 digital aft ermarket fa c tb o o k cop yrigh t © 2009 aut omotive aft ermarket industry asso c ia tio n

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of AAIA Factbook 2010

AAIA Factbook 2010
Economic and Financial Indicators
Key Economic Indicators
Aftermarket Employment
Technician Employment and Wages
Aftermarket Mergers and Acquisitions
Financial Profiles of Selected Aftermarket Companies
U S Motor Vehicle Aftermarket
Channel Forecast Model
Census Review and Forecast Assumptions
U.S. Motor Vehicle Aftermarket
Size of the Automotive Aftermarket
Aftermarket Sales by Distribution Channel
Aftermarket Service and Retail Channels
Program Distribution Summary
Automotive Aftermarket
Consumer Profile
Sales of Replacement Tires
Replacement Rates for Motor Vehicle Parts and Jobs
Aftermarket Accessories
Chemicals and Fluids
Automotive Chemicals and Fluids
Aftermarket Segments
Medium and Heavy Duty Truck Aftermarket
Paint, Body and Equipment Aftermarket
Tool and Equipment Aftermarket
Vehicle Sales, Usage and Registrations
U.S. Motor Vehicle Sales
Top 10 Light Vehicle Sales
U.S. Motor Vehicle Population
Hybrid Vehicles
Vehicle Operating Costs
Gasoline Affordability and Vehicle Miles Traveled
State Summary Statistics
State Summary Statistics
Global Aftermarket
Global Economic and Automotive Data
Global Vehicle Registrations
Canadian Aftermarket
Mexican Aftermarket
Chinese Aftermarket
Glossary and Reference
Glossary of Aftermarket Terms
NAICS Definitions
Aftermarket Data Resources
Aftermarket Data Resources
AAIA Market Research
AAIA Market Research
AAIA – Lang Market Comparison
Harmonization of Aftermarket Industry Data

AAIA Factbook 2010