Aftermarket Insider Issue 72 - (Page 18)
IndIcators and IndIces
AAIA Market Intelligence: Don’t Do Business Without It!
Aftermarket Insider is pleased to introduce a new feature section, devoted exclusively to AAIA Market Intelligence. Each issue will highlight the latest and greatest market intelligence data available in the industry, and will provide insight, analysis, statistics and facts on what’s going on in the aftermarket, so you can make the best, most informed decisions for your business. This introductory edition includes an economic overview of recent trends, identified by AAIA/Northwood consortium and information from the Key Issues Impact Survey.
overview of september AAIA Industry Indicators Report
By Dr. Timothy G. Nash and Adam N. Matzke
The U.S. economy continues to struggle as it fights to avoid slipping into a second recession. The U.S. stock market stumbled in August after the announcement by Standard & Poor’s that the U.S. credit rating would be downgraded, as seen by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which fell 1413 points (11.6 percent) in just a few days. But the market was resilient and the Dow fought its way back to finish
the month down just 519 points (4.3 percent) offering hope for a strong September. More recently, U.S. investors have seen a volatile market as the Dow continues to stumble. However, not all of the economic data is so negative. Industrial production and capacity utilization were both up in August, and the most recent data for disposable income shows a positive increase and its first favorable assessment in several months. The monthly AAIA Industry Indicators Report gathers and reports key automotive aftermarket data, dividing it into the following three categories:
Industry Indicators assessment summaries for sept. 2011
auto retail report Favorable condition for automotive aftermarket = Indeterminate trend-should monitor = Unfavorable condition for automotive aftermarket = Data not available = Auto Parts Manufacturing Report Favorable condition for automotive aftermarket = Indeterminate trend-should monitor = Unfavorable condition for automotive aftermarket = Data not available = Heavy Duty Aftermarket Report Favorable condition for automotive aftermarket = Indeterminate trend-should monitor = Unfavorable condition for automotive aftermarket = Data not available = na na na May 8 5 10 0 May 9 3 11 0 May 8 3 11 0 June 9 7 7 0 June 10 6 7 0 June 7 5 10 0 July 7 8 8 0 July 7 7 9 0 July 7 4 11 0
Automotive Retail, Automotive Parts Manufacturing and the Heavy Duty Aftermarket. The purpose of this monthly overview is to provide a quick synopsis of the U.S. and global economy while taking some of the data in the Industry Indicators Report and applying it for thoughtful discussion and decision making. A key indicator for the economy and the robustness of the automotive aftermarket is miles driven. In June 2011, miles driven increased 2.0 percent relative to May 2011, but decreased by 1.8 percent relative to June 2010. This is the fourth straight month miles driven has decreased relative the same month of the previous year. We have largely attributed this trend to surging gas prices. Even though gas prices eased from $3.96 a gallon in May to $3.74 a gallon in June, they are still 34 percent higher than June 2010 prices in which, on average, gasoline sold for $2.79 a gallon in the U.S.
In general, the report clearly demonstrates a decrease in conditions favorable to the automotive aftermarket from nine to seven. It also shows the total number of unfavorable elements remained fairly constant from May to July. In seven of the last eight months, the number of favorable elements has decreased from the previous month. We maintain our position of “uncertain” for the outlook of the U.S. economy and the automotive aftermarket due to the volatility in the U.S. stock market, poor growth in GDP in the U.S. and globally and generally higher gold prices, which may be indicating a global stagflationary period similar to the U.S. and much of the world in the late 1970s. For the full report and commentary, visit the AAIA Knowledge Center at www.aftermarket.org.
The Industry Indicators Report gathers and summarizes key automotive aftermarket data and divides it into the following three categories: automotive retail, automotive parts manufacturing and the heavy duty aftermarket. The purpose of this monthly overview is to provide a quick synopsis of the U.S. while taking some of the data in the Industry Indicators Report and applying it for thoughtful discussion and decision making. Dr. Timothy G. Nash is a vice president and the Fry Chair in Free Market Economics at Northwood University. The Industry Indicators Report is prepared monthly under Dr. Nash’s supervision with assistance from Northwood University economics major Adam Matzke, and funded by AAIA’s Northwood Scholarship program. The Industry Indicators Report is an AAIA member-only benefit. Research is posted in the Knowledge Center on the AAIA website at www.aftermarket.org/knowledgecenter, and is accessible through AAIA username and password. For assistance, contact the AAIA membership department at 301-654-6664.
18 | AFTERMARKET INSIDER | VOLUME 72
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Aftermarket Insider Issue 72
Aftermarket Insider Issue 72
Doing Your Industry Proud!
Toolbox: AAPEX Website
AAIA Market Intelligence: Don’t Do Business Wit hout It!
Aftermarket Insider Issue 72