Aftermarket Insider Issue 74 - (Page 17)

checking in With china i N T E R N AT i o N A l F o C U S China’s Changing Auto Parc B Y S Te v e N H . G A NS T e R , M A NA G I N G DI Re C TO R , T e C HNOMIC A SIA FoRECAsT oF ChInA’s sEDAn PARC, 2002 To 2015 150 120 MILLIONS 90 60 30 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 im at e d f re o ha S Sedan Parc E st . 12 . .S % U 7.7a 0 Kore by Na t % l na io Santana series comprised almost 25 percent of the sedan parc in China. Today, the Santana is less than 5 percent of sedans on the road and represents how dramatically China’s light passenger vehicle market has changed in the last six years. Virtually all the major vehicle makers in the world are assembling in China, so model proliferation has been significant over the last 10 years. In 2011, we estimate the China’s sedan parc (including MPVs and SUVs) to total almost 60 million vehicles. It has been growing at a pace close to 19 percent per annum over the last three to four years. This growth will ebb a bit over the next five years as new car sales slow but will still be robust by world standards, reaching an estimated 123,000,000 by 2015 (about half the U.S. market for sedans and light trucks). In 2004, the r Eu .2 28 op p Ja % .4 21 e Bas % an e Ch As important as the parc’s growth is, its change in composition is equally so. While the growth in new car sales has kept the overall parc age very young (average age of most sedan categories is four to five years versus 11 years in the U.S.), the absolute number of older cars has increased significantly. Fourto-nine-year-old sedans will become the largest segment by 2015 and reach almost 50 percent market share, or almost 58 million vehicles. Chinese brands, such as Geely, Chery and BYD, now comprise the largest segment of the parc by national base. 30 % .7 Virtually all the major vehicle makers in the world are assembling in China, so model proliferation has been significant over the last 10 years. Most car owners today are private versus government owned which dominated the market 10 years ago… and many are first time owners with little knowledge of car maintenance and repair. Steven H. Ganster is managing director of Technomic Asia, a Tompkins International Company. Technomic Asia is a strategic consultancy firm whose mission is to assist globally-expanding companies to build their Asian businesses through high quality market strategy and implementation assistance (www. technomicasia.com). Thompkins Associates designs and integrates global end-to-end solutions for companies that embrace supply chain excellence (www.tompkinsinc.com). in a AFTERMARKET INSIDER | VOLUME 74 | 17 http://www.technomicasia.com http://www.technomicasia.com http://www.tompkinsinc.com

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Aftermarket Insider Issue 74

Aftermarket Insider Issue 74
President’s Message
A Celebration Campaign
Association News
Inside Technology
Member Profile
Toolbox: Qr Codes
International Focus
AAIA Market Intelligence: Don’t Do Business Without It!
Association News
Segment Spotlight
Government Affairs
Industry News

Aftermarket Insider Issue 74