Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 62

Screens High-Confidence Stock Picks By Haywood Kelly Focusing on stocks with the most visible cash flows has been a winning strategy, and this screen can find them. When we examine the performance of the Morningstar Rating for stocks, one pattern jumps out: Buying the stocks of wide-moat companies—when those stocks trade at a discount to our fair value estimates—is a darn good strategy. This makes sense. Other things equal, our ability to forecast the cash flows of a firm will increase with the width of the company’s moat. And the more dependable the cash-flow forecasts, the more accurate the resulting fair value is. After all, a fair value is simply the present value of a stream of future free cash flows. Why would wide-moat firms be easier to forecast? These are firms with competitive advantages—some edge over potential competitors such as economies of scale (bigger is better), structurally lower costs (such as access to a scarce resource), or high customer-switching costs (once a customer, always a customer). In general, the more insulated a company is from competitors, the more sustainable and predictable its future cash flows. Those cash flows are unlikely to be competed away by new entrants or existing players. Let’s turn to the numbers. The chart shows the performance of the Morningstar Rating for stocks for just our wide-moat universe. Over the trailing five years, wide-moat firms with Morningstar Ratings of 5 stars have outperformed wide-moat firms with Morningstar Ratings of 1 star by 22% annualized. This means that within the universe of wide-moat stocks, there’s been a huge margin between those rated “buys” by our analysts and those rated “sells.” Performance by Star Rating (Wide Moats Only) 5 5-year 3-year 1-year 12.3% 7.8% 18.4% 4 3.3% –3.6% –8.9% 3 1.7% –3.4% –6.6% 2 4.0% 1 –9.9% 0.1% –22.2% –9.0% –28.2% Data through Sept. 30, 2009. We also track the performance of our cheapest wide-moat stocks through the Wide Moat Focus index. We construct the index by taking the 20 cheapest wide-moat stocks every quarter and allocating 5% of the index to each. Over the past five years, the index has outperformed the S&P 500 by 7.91% on an annualized basis. 62 Morningstar Advisor December/January 2010

Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010

Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010
Contents
New on MorningstarAdvisor.com
Letter from the Editor
Contributors
How Big a Role Do Alternative Investments Play in Your Practice?
In for the Long Term: Dana Emery
It's All About the Plan
Investment Briefs
A More Powerful Bankruptcy Prediction Model
This Time It’s Personal
Alternative Investments Go Mainstream
After Meltdown, More Advisors Turn to Alternatives
Where to Find Low Correlation
Commodities Are a Rock in a Hard Place
How Alternatives Protect Portfolios
Shipshape
Slow Scrutiny
Four Picks for the Present
Are Utilities’ Dividends Worth the Worry?
High-Confidence Stock Picks
Long-Short Funds That Pass a Simple Stress Test
Mutual Fund Analyst Picks
50 Most Popular Equity ETFs
Undervalued Stocks
VA Sales See Some Recovery
New at Morningstar
I Read the News Today, Oh Boy
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - Cover2
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - Contents
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 2
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 3
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - New on MorningstarAdvisor.com
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 5
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 6
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - Letter from the Editor
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - Contributors
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 9
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - How Big a Role Do Alternative Investments Play in Your Practice?
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 11
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - In for the Long Term: Dana Emery
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 13
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - It's All About the Plan
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 15
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - Investment Briefs
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 17
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 18
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 19
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - A More Powerful Bankruptcy Prediction Model
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 21
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 22
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 23
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 24
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 25
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - This Time It’s Personal
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 27
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 28
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 29
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 30
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 31
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - Alternative Investments Go Mainstream
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 33
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 34
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 35
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - After Meltdown, More Advisors Turn to Alternatives
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 37
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - Where to Find Low Correlation
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 39
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - Commodities Are a Rock in a Hard Place
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 41
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - How Alternatives Protect Portfolios
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 43
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 44
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 45
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 46
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 47
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - Shipshape
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 49
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 50
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 51
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - Slow Scrutiny
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 53
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 54
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 55
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - Four Picks for the Present
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 57
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 58
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - Are Utilities’ Dividends Worth the Worry?
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 60
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 61
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - High-Confidence Stock Picks
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 63
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - Long-Short Funds That Pass a Simple Stress Test
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 65
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - Mutual Fund Analyst Picks
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 67
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 68
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 69
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 50 Most Popular Equity ETFs
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 71
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 72
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - Undervalued Stocks
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 74
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 75
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - VA Sales See Some Recovery
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 77
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - 78
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - New at Morningstar
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - I Read the News Today, Oh Boy
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - Cover3
Morningstar Advisor - December/January 2010 - Cover4
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