Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 51

EXHIBIT 4

Similar Long-Term Prediction Power Since 1881, CAPE and CATY each had an R-squared of 18%, meaning both measures
explained close to one fifth in the variability of future five-year returns over the time period.
1881-2016: 1/CAPE

5-Year Real Forward Returns (Annualized)

1881-2016: CATY

5-Year Real Forward Returns (Annualized)

30
%

30
%

15

15

0

0

R2=0.18114

R2=0.18137

-15
0%
1/CAPE

5

10

15

20

25

-15
0%
CATY

Source: Morningstar.

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Source: Morningstar.

EXHIBIT 5

More-Recent History But since 1970, CATY significantly outperformed, explaining 24% of the variability of forward returns, while
the CAPE ratio only explained 9%.
1970-2016: 1/CAPE

5-Year Real Forward Returns (Annualized)

1970-2016: CATY

5-Year Real Forward Returns (Annualized)

30
%

30
%

15

15

0

0

R2=0.08758

R2=0.2364

-15
0%
1/CAPE

2

4

6

8

10

Source: Morningstar.

performed significantly better more recently.
A key advantage of CATY is the fact that it relies on
total payouts, the cash flows distributed to
shareholders. It is, therefore, less prone to changes
in accounting standards or the discretion of
accountants. Earnings are just a means to an end,
as John Burr Williams pointed out, while the intrinsic value of an asset is based on the net present
value of its cash flows. CATY is a useful tool
for investors looking to gauge the valuation of the
stock market in a long-run historical context. K
Philip U. Straehl is head of capital markets and asset
allocation with Morningstar Investment Management, LLC.

12

14

-15
0%
CATY

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Source: Morningstar.

Roger G. Ibbotson is Professor in the Practice Emeritus
of Finance with the Yale School of Management
and chairman and chief investment officer of Zebra
Capital Management.
References
Boudoukh, J., Michaely, R., Richardson, M., & Roberts,
M.R. 2007. "On the Importance of Measuring Payout Yield:
Implications for Empirical Asset Pricing." The Journal of
Finance, Vol. 62, pp. 877-915.
Campbell, J.Y., & Shiller, R.J. 1998. "Valuation Ratios and
the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook." Journal of Portfolio
Management, Vol. 24, No. 2 (Winter), pp. 11-26.
Dichev, I., Graham, J., Harvey, C.R., & Rajgopal, S. 2016.
"The Misrepresentation of Earnings." Financial Analysts

Journal, Vol. 72, No. 1.
Grullon, G., & Michaely, R. 2002. "Dividends, Share
Repurchases, and the Substitution Hypothesis." Journal of
Finance, Vol. 57, pp. 1649-1684.
Miller, M.H., & Modigliani, F. 1961. "Dividend Policy,
Growth, and the Valuation of Shares." The Journal of
Business, Vol. 34, No. 4 (October 1961), pp. 411-433.
Siegel, J.J., 2016. "The Shiller CAPE Ratio: A New Look."
Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 72, No. 3.
Straehl, P.U., & Ibbotson, R.G. 2017. "The Long-Run Drivers
of Stock Returns: Total Payouts and the Real Economy."
Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 73, No. 3.

global.morningstar.com/Morningstarmagazine

51


http://global.morningstar.com/Morningstarmagazine

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017

Contents
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - Cover1
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - Cover2
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 1
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 2
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - Contents
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 4
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 5
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 6
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 7
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 8
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 9
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 10
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 11
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 12
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 13
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 14
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 15
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 16
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 17
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 18
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 19
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 20
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 21
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 22
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 23
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 24
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 25
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 26
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 27
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 28
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 29
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 30
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 31
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 32
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 33
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 34
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 35
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 36
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 37
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 38
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 39
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 40
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 41
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 42
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 43
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 44
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 45
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 46
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 47
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 48
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 49
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 50
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 51
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 52
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 53
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 54
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 55
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 56
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 57
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 58
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 59
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 60
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 61
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 62
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 63
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 64
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 65
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 66
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 67
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 68
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 69
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 70
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 71
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 72
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 73
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 74
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 75
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 76
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 77
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 78
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 79
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 80
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 81
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 82
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 83
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 84
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 85
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 86
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 87
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 88
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 89
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 90
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 91
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 92
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 93
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 94
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 95
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - 96
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - Cover3
Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2017 - Cover4
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2024q1
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2023q4
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2023q3
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2023q2
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2023q1
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2022q4
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2022q3
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2022q2
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2022q1
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2021q4
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2021q3
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2021q2
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2021q1
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2020q4
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2020q3
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2020q2
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2020q1
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2019winter
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2019fall
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2019summer
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2019spring
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20191201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20181011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20180809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20180607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20180405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20180203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20181201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20171011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20170809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20170607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20170405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20170203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20171201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20161011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20160809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20160607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20160405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20160203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20161201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20151011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20150809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20150607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20150405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20150203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20151201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20141011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20140809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20140607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20140405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20140203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20141201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20131011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20130809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20130607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20130405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20130203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20131201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20121011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20120809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20120607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20120405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/investorconference2012
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20120203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20121201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20111011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20110809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20110607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20110405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20110203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20111201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20101011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20100809_lincoln
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20100809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20100607_lincoln
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20100607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20100405_lincoln
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20100405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20100203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20101201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20091011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20090809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20090607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20090405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20090203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_2008fall
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_2008summer
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_2007spring
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_2007fall
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_2007summer
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_2008spring
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_2008catalog
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_2008winter
https://www.nxtbookmedia.com