Morningstar - Fall 2019 - 6

Contributors

Magazine

Preston Caldwell

Stephen Ellis

In "A New Cold War?" (Page 38), Preston
Caldwell and Stephen Ellis provide a data-driven
perspective on current headlines trumpeting
trade tensions with China. Their conclusions stem
from an in-house model that analyzes a
variety of scenarios; the model is partly informed
by the research in Harvard professor Graham
Allison's 2017 book Destined for War: Can America
and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?
"What surprised me," Caldwell says, "is that
I found no strong arguments out there against
Allison's analysis of historical case studies
that led him to conclude that war with China is
a serious possibility." Not that Morningstar
calculates the odds of a hot war to be high. That
said, the possibility of some sort of long-term
conflict-whether a full-blown trade war or
worse-is high enough to warrant caution when
forecasting China's long-term GDP growth.
Caldwell is an equity analyst for Morningstar
Research Services. He covers oilfield-services
stocks and participates in crafting Morningstar's
long-term oil price forecasts. As head of
the China Economic Committee, he manages
Morningstar's macroeconomic forecasting
for China. Ellis is an energy and utilities strategist
for Morningstar Research Services, covering
midstream companies, and a member of the China
Economic Committee.

Raquel Aparicio

Raquel Aparicio is an illustrator based in
Valencia, Spain. She uses traditional media to
develop her conceptual drawings, which
have appeared in magazines, children's books,
advertising, and newspapers, including
The Washington Post and The Boston Globe. Her
art for this issue conceptualizes improved
bond indexes as a clearer lens through which
to view the market. "The figures of different
shapes and heights (Page 28) represent both the
ebbs and flows of the bond market and the
different kinds of investors" approaching it, she
says. Aparicio won Spain's Injuve Award
in 2009, and her work has received awards from
the Society of Illustrators in New York City and the
Society of Illustrators of Los Angeles.

Editor-in-Chief Jerry Kerns
Managing Editor Laura Lallos
Editorial Board David M. Blanchett, Andrew Carter, Elizabeth Collins,
Lee Davidson, Adam Fleck, Sylvester Flood, Jon Hale, Thomas M. Idzorek,
Ben Johnson, Paul D. Kaplan, Haywood Kelly, Dan Kemp, Grant
Kennaway, Laura Pavlenko Lutton, Alex Morozov, Daniel Needham,
Nicolas Owens, Don Phillips, Jeffrey Ptak, Hal Ratner, Daniel Rohr, Tricia
Rothschild, Anthony Serhan, Christopher Traulsen
Contributors Christine Benz, Hortense Bioy, Dan Bruns, Peter Brunt, Sarah
Bush, Preston Caldwell, Eric Compton, Gabrielle DiBenedetto, Stephen
Ellis, Charles Fishman, Bridget B. Hughes, Erik Johnson, Charles Keenan,
Maciej Kowara, Kenneth Lamont, Tom Lauricella, Chokwai Lee, Dan
Lefkovitz, Travis Miller, Ali Mogharabi, Emma Rapaport, John Rekenthaler,
Aron Szapiro, Lorraine Tan, Ralph Wanger, Tom Whitelaw
Art Director Alex Skoirchet
Designer Paul Zdon
Illustrator Raquel Aparicio
Photographers Rick Dahms, Matthew Gilson, Kim Raff, James Tweedie
Proofreader Mike Eiler
Publisher Leslie Marshall
Director of Advertising Sales Stuart Roge
Regional Sales Directors Dan Atkinson, Tony Lignelli, Joanna Sawyer
Morningstar, Inc.
CEO Kunal Kapoor
Managing Director, Design David Williams
Chief Marketing Officer Rob Pinkerton
Head of Brand Kristin Mateja
How to Reach Morningstar Magazine
Subscriber Services & Circulation magazine_custserv@morningstar.com
Editorial and Letters to the Editor magazine_editor@morningstar.com
Advertising Opportunities magazine_adrates@morningstar.com
Reprints and Licensing magazine_licensing@morningstar.com
How to Reach Morningstar
Customer Service +1 312 384-4000
Advisor Product Sales +1 877 586-5405
Data Questions +1 312 696-6600
Morningstar magazine is published quarterly by Morningstar, Inc.,
22 W. Washington St., Chicago, IL 60602. An annual subscription
for delivery in the U.S. is $60. All exhibit data in this magazine is provided
by Morningstar and Ibbotson Associates unless otherwise noted.
© 2019 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. The information contained
herein: (1) is intended solely for informational purposes; (2) is proprietary
to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (3) may not be copied
or distributed; (4) is not warranted to be accurate, complete, or timely;
and (5) does not constitute investment advice of any kind. Neither
Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages
or losses arising from any use of this information. Past performance
is no guarantee of future results. "Morningstar" and the Morningstar logo
are registered marks of Morningstar, Inc.
Disclosure Morningstar licenses its indexes to certain providers,
including BlackRock Institutional Trust Company, N.A., First Trust, and
Deutsche Bank, for use in exchange-traded funds and exchange-traded
notes. These ETFs and ETNs are not sponsored, endorsed, issued,
or sold by Morningstar. Morningstar does not make any representation
regarding the advisability of investing in ETFs and ETNs that are
based on Morningstar indexes.

1000-00148116

6

Morningstar Fall 2019
Morningstar - Fall 2019

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Morningstar - Fall 2019
