Morningstar - Q4 2020 - 53

EXHIBIT 3

U.K. Rationing During the war, Britons were forced to change their eating habits

because of rationing. Those austere habits were short-lived, however.
Meat

Fats

Eggs

Sugar

U.K. Per Capita Consumption (Indexed, Prewar Level = 1)
2.0
1.4
1.5
1.3

Rationing occurred at various
levels from 1939 to 1954.

1.2
1.1 1.0
After rationing, demand for food
products surpassed prewar levels.

0.5
0

Prewar

1945

1950

1955

1960

Source: U.K. Department for Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs.

consumption of meat, fat, sugar, and eggs was
far in excess of prewar levels.
U.S. Female Labor Force Participation Rate
Therefore, wartime rationing did not have a
noticeable long-term impact on people's eating
habits; demand for rationed goods fully recovered
after the war.
More women joined the

workforce
the 1940s,Labor
but the
Episode 2: WWII
andin Female
increase was not exceptional.
Force Participation
WWII affords another lesson from the spike in
the labor force participation of women. This
may be helpful, as the COVID-19 pandemic has
created massive changes in how people
work, most notably for our study in the surge
1890
1920
1950
in working from home.

Habits played a role as women became more
accustomed to working outside the home and their
families adjusted. Sunk costs had some
importance,
as firms
were forced into an
Real Oil Price
($bbl/rhs)

experiment with employing more women, and by
all accounts, this experiment was successful in
terms of productivity.
75%
But female labor participation in the U.S. was
4
already on the rise before WWII. As EXHIB IT 59
shows, the 1940s hardly stand out. Participation
50
increased by about 6 percentage points in
the 1940s, right in line with the average decade
from 1930 to 1990. One could argue that the fast
growth in the decades after the 1940s was
25
jump-started by WWII, but we think other factors
were more important.
Economist Claudia Goldin cites various reasons 0
1980
2010
that could have positively affected female
labor participation before and after 1945, including
increasing demand for service-sector and
office jobs in the 20th century; changes
in household production technology; and removal
of
to employment
of married
women.1Trend
Worldbarriers
Oil Demand
(mmbpd, lhs)
1940-1973

120

1
2
3
4
5
6

Economists Claudia Olivetti and Stefania Albanesi
stress the importance of progress in maternity
care for married women's labor force participation
between 1930 and 1960 as birth-related
mortality and disability were substantially
reduced.2 Further, the rise of feminism, invention
of contraception pills in the 1960s (which
allowed women to plan careers and family life
more reliably), increase in education levels
among women, and wage convergence
helped labor participation rates advance in the
1960s and 1970s.
Overall, we believe the WWII experiment with
greater female labor force participation
changed some habits but had only a modest
impact on the long-term trend.
We note that for all the gains women have
made in workforce participation over
the decades, COVID-19 could threaten the
advancements, at least in the short term.
According to research by McKinsey, women's
jobs are 1.8 times more vulnerable than
men's because of the pandemic, and although
women make up 39% of the global workforce,
they account for 54% of overall job losses.3
This recession has been particularly hard
on women's jobs because it has most affected
the industries where female labor is
concentrated, including restaurants, healthcare,
and hospitality, and because school and
daycare closures have increased childcare
needs.4 Working women with children
are especially vulnerable. According to a survey
by the Boston Consulting Group, working
women spend on average 15 hours per week
more on unpaid domestic labor than do
working men.5 As childcare and other home
responsibilities fall back on women, they might
be more likely to give up their jobs than
men because they are paid less and have lower
earning expectations.6

100
76.49

Goldin, C. 2006. "The Quiet Revolution That Transformed Women's Employment, Education, and Family." American Economic Review, Vol. 96, No. 2, PP. 1-21.
90
75
Albanesi, S. & Olivetti, C. 2016. "Gender Roles and Medical Progress." Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, Vol. 124, No. 3, PP. 650-695.
McKinsey Global Institute. 2020. "COVID-19 and Gender Equality: Countering the Regressive Effects." July 15.
Alon, T., Doepke, M., Olmstead-Rumsey, J. et al. 2020. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Gender Equality." NBER Working Paper, April.
BCG.
60 2020. "Easing the COVID-19 Burden on Working Parents." May 21. 1974-85 Average
50
Savage, M. 2020. "How COVID-19 Is Changing Women's Lives." BBC, June 30.

42.7
30

1986-2000 Average

25

morningstar.com/lp/magazine

53


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Morningstar - Q4 2020

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