Mortgage Journal Hypothecaire - November 2009 - (Page 44)

FEATURE I DOSSIER Markets Behaving Badly L’inconduite des marchés By/par Will Dunning id you hear about the economist whose forecasts have been so accurate this year that he’s virtually a rock star? I didn’t think so, because it didn’t happen, at least not to me. Expectations about the Canadian economy and housing market have swung wildly in the past year – not just for me, but for just about everyone who publishes forecasts. Forecasting can be a humbling game Exhibit 1: last fall, expectations were for a soft landing in 2009, with employment flat or risr ing slightly, housing sales falling a bit, and housing prices increasing a bit. At the same time, the fi nancial crisis is exploded and the Canadian economy and d housing markets fell off a cliff. It soon n became clear that the forecasts were way y off the mark and before long they were re revised sharply downwards, during late 2008 and early this year. vez-vous entendu parler de cet économiste devenu l’équivalent d’une vedette rock parce que ses prévisions étaient si justes? Bien sûr que non; à ce que je sache, il n’y en a pas eu. sach sache, Depuis un an, les gens qui publient des prévisions sont bien en mal de voir venir le prochain mous sont vement de girouette de l’économie et de l’imvem mobilier canadiens. m La prévision, un exercice d’humilité L 1re pièce à conviction : L’automne dernier, o s’attendait à ce que 2009 commence en on do douceur, avec un nombre d’emplois stable ou en légère hausse, un léger recul des ventes réside résidentielles et une mince hausse du prix des mai maisons. Will Dunning Simultanément, la crise financière explosait, l’économie et l’immobilier canadiens s’effondraient. Il est apparu bientôt que les prévisions avaient manqué le coche. On les a toutes revues fortement à la baisse dès la fin 2008 et le début 2009. 44 I MORTGAGE JOURNAL • JOURNAL HYPOTHÉCAIRE I November/December 2009 • Novembre/Décembre 2009

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Mortgage Journal Hypothecaire - November 2009

Mortgage Journal Hypothecaire - November 2009
Contents
Index to Advertisers
Chair's Remarks a Strong, Inclusive Voice
President's Message Conference Time
Ethics Complaint Report
Mortgage Fraud Industry Fights Back With Collaborative Approach
Opportunity Knocks Vancouver Housing Initiatives Open New Doors for Mortgage Professionals
New Year's Resolutions Self Assessment is Critical to Self Improvement
Markets Behaving Badly
Giving Back TD Engages Communities Through Hands-On Volunteering
Events
Industry Announcements
New Amps
New Members

Mortgage Journal Hypothecaire - November 2009

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