Jetrader - March/April 2009 - 14

World Air Cargo Forecast History Supports Future Growth I Boeing Converted Freighter: The ﬁrst passenger 747-400 to be converted under Boeing’s program is seen here in the company livery. (Photo source: Boeing) n the business of industry forecasting, like so many aspects of life, timing is everything. For more than two decades, Boeing has published its biennial World Air Cargo Forecast (WACF). The lengthy publication is cited by airlines and industry groups alike and recognized as a comprehensive and accurate look at the state of the global air freight business. This year’s update was released at the International Air Cargo Forum in Kuala Lumpur in November 2008. It comes amidst gloomy performance reports and near-term projections, a result of 2008’s fuel-price thrill ride and the global ﬁnancial distress. This climate dampened what otherwise is an encouraging long-term view of where air cargo is expected to head through 2027—a message that the authors have been quick to reinforce in talking to critics. And the critics have no shortage of bad news. A down year for cargo: Media have reported the International Air Transport Association as saying the cargo market showed a 13.5 percent drop in international cargo in November 2008 compared to the previous year as a byproduct of current market conditions. Data complied by the company’s own ‘Team Cargo’ through November showed a decline of 21 percent relative to trafﬁc levels of same-time 2007 and an overall decline of about 4 percent in cargo growth for the ﬁrst 11 months of last year. In contrast, the company’s latest 20-year look expects world air cargo growth to expand at a 5.8 percent annual rate (a drop from 6.1 percent in the previous forecast), with the effect of tripling worldwide air-freight trafﬁc over that time and seeing the number of airplanes in the freighter ﬂeet doubled. Despite current realities, the report points out that the industry’s cyclical nature historically has balanced out the peaks and valleys of near-term disruptions like those being currently experienced. Recent History: During the past few years, the cargo market’s performance has been signiﬁcantly affected by jet-fuel prices (see chart) and, more recently, the distress in the ﬁnancial sector. In 2007, world air cargo trafﬁc grew 5.1 percent, following 3.2 percent growth in 2006 and 1.7 percent growth in 2005. 2007’s expansion was largely driven by strong growth in the Europe-Asia, Europe-North America and Latin America-North America markets. The higher price of fuel may have shunted some trafﬁc that otherwise would have moved by air to less expensive road and container ship modes. In 2008, spot jet-fuel prices accelerated during the ﬁrst half of the year to their all-time high of U.S. $4.27 per gallon in early July. According to the forecast, ﬁrst-half 2008 world air cargo trafﬁc rose about one percent over the same time in 2007, despite the fuel and economic growth 14 The ofﬁcial publication of the International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading

Jetrader - March/April 2009

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