Jetrader - March/April 2009 - 15

Freighter Fleet Doubles, Shifting Toward Large Widebodies Standard-body ( 80 tonnes) 2027 2007 35% 26% 39% 35% 641 New Conversions 1,323 New Conversions 461 New Production 11 New Production 30% 35% 711 New Conversions 211 New Production 1,948 freighters 3,892 freighters (1,948 existing plus 3,358 new less 1,414 retired) COPYRIGHT © 2008 THE BOEING COMPANY Flight Testing: The first 747-400 BCF takes off during flight testing. The BCF option complements Boeing’s suite of production freighter offerings, providing operators with multiple options as they seek to match airplanes and routes on highly disparate cargo missions while balancing capital outlays with operating expenses. challenges during that time. While fuel prices declined close to 30 percent during the third quarter of 2008, the worsening economic and financial conditions saw traffic levels continuing to fall. GDP is the Key: In forecasting air-cargo traffic growth, it is economic activity—as measured by world GDP—that remains the primary driver. World GDP grew by 3.7 percent in 2007, following 3.9 percent growth in 2006. Clearly in the near term, the world economic outlook is gloomy as a result of the global liquidity crisis, loan defaults and resulting impacts, with GDP expected to decline in 2009. A sustained recovery in economic activity is not expected before second-half 2010. Historic Reminders: Given current conditions, concerns over the industry’s growth prospects are warranted. However, the forecast is quick to point out that projections of world GDP growth averaging just higher than 3 percent over the next two decades, continued industry globalization, increased productivity improvement and cost-reduction efforts should help world air cargo traffic growth return to historic norms. As examples, it points to the industry’s resilience in recovering from previous economic impacts, such as the Asian economic crisis, the events of 9/11, and the SARS outbreak. “Our research tells us that long-term economic growth, freighter fleet renewal and moderating jet fuel prices will stimulate air cargo growth,” said Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing for Boeing Commercial Airplanes. “These positive prospects will prevail despite the industry’s concerns about out current economic challenges.” Asia to Lead: Among the world’s air cargo markets, the new cargo forecast expects Asia to continue to lead all global traffic routes. Domestic China and intra-Asia markets will grow 9.9 percent and 8.1 percent per year, respectively, and Asian-related market growth is predicted to exceed the global average. “For the first time since late 2003, 2008 has brought market contraction. However, history reminds us that the air cargo market returns robustly when the economy strengthens,” said Tom Crabtree, a regional marketing director for Boeing Commercial and primary WACF. “Cargo remains crucial to globalization efforts.” Future Freighter: Boeing’s new production freighter (the 777F) is seen during flight testing. The airplane will fly farther than any other freighter (9,065 kilometers, or 4,895 nautical miles) while providing more capacity than any other twin-engine freighter. (Photo source: Boeing) Jetrader 15

Jetrader - March/April 2009

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Jetrader - March/April 2009

Jetrader - March/April 2009
A Message from the President
Contents
Calendar/News
Crunching the Numbers
World Air Cargo Forecast
Brain Drain in the Transportation Industry
Aircraft Appraisals
From the ISTAT Foundation
Aviation History
Advertising Index
Jetrader - March/April 2009 - Jetrader - March/April 2009
Jetrader - March/April 2009 - Cover2
Jetrader - March/April 2009 - A Message from the President
Jetrader - March/April 2009 - 4
Jetrader - March/April 2009 - Contents
Jetrader - March/April 2009 - 6
Jetrader - March/April 2009 - Calendar/News
Jetrader - March/April 2009 - Crunching the Numbers
Jetrader - March/April 2009 - 9
Jetrader - March/April 2009 - 10
Jetrader - March/April 2009 - 11
Jetrader - March/April 2009 - 12
Jetrader - March/April 2009 - 13
Jetrader - March/April 2009 - World Air Cargo Forecast
Jetrader - March/April 2009 - 15
Jetrader - March/April 2009 - 16
Jetrader - March/April 2009 - 17
Jetrader - March/April 2009 - Brain Drain in the Transportation Industry
Jetrader - March/April 2009 - 19
Jetrader - March/April 2009 - 20
Jetrader - March/April 2009 - Aircraft Appraisals
Jetrader - March/April 2009 - 22
Jetrader - March/April 2009 - 23
Jetrader - March/April 2009 - 24
Jetrader - March/April 2009 - From the ISTAT Foundation
Jetrader - March/April 2009 - 26
Jetrader - March/April 2009 - Aviation History
Jetrader - March/April 2009 - 28
Jetrader - March/April 2009 - 29
Jetrader - March/April 2009 - 30
Jetrader - March/April 2009 - 31
Jetrader - March/April 2009 - 32
Jetrader - March/April 2009 - 33
Jetrader - March/April 2009 - Advertising Index
Jetrader - March/April 2009 - Cover3
Jetrader - March/April 2009 - Cover4
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