Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 42

appraisal

Boeing 777-300ER
Dr. Stuart Hatcher Head of Valuations & Modelling IBA Group Ltd. Tel: +44 1372 224488 stuart.hatcher@ibagroup.com

Background
The Boeing 777-300ER entered service in May 2004 with Air France and by the end of January 2012, Boeing had delivered a total of 316 aircraft to 29 operators. With its higher fuel capacity, new wing design, and substantially upgraded engines, the 777-300ER has become the dominant force in the widebody market and is able to couple range and capacity more cost effectively than the comparable A340-600 and 747-400 fleets. While the 747 will remain competitive on high density long-haul routes on a cost per-seat basis, the lower trip cost of the 777 does provide additional flexibility to the operator at times when load factors may be in decline. The largest operator of the aircraft is Emirates who currently operates 64 aircraft with a further backlog of 87 that are expected to be delivered on regular intervals for the rest of this decade.

Basic Specs
Fuel Capacity: 47,890 USG Maximum TakeOff Weight: 759,000-775,000lb Maximum Range: 7,930nm Interior Configuration: 356 seats (3 class), 451 seats (2 class)

Market Outlook
The Boeing 777-300ER remains a favorite among airlines, banks and lessors alike. It dominates the widebody sale and leaseback market and considering a backlog of nearly 300 aircraft, this trend is set to continue. The main competition for the 777-300ER in terms of capacity and range comes from the A340-600 but with fewer than 100 aircraft in service and closure of the production line in 2011, Airbus will have to wait until the A350-1000XWB enters service from 2017 until the battle can resume. Boeing has yet to suggest a likely timing for replacement of the 777-300ER, but given they are preoccupied with the 787, 747-8 and 737MAX, as well as growing orders for the existing design, it should be some time before a formal announcement is made. With Boeing looking toward offering the 787-10 as an option, it is possible that the 777-300ER replacement may be the smaller model offered as the 777-200ER/LR replacement would compete in the same sector. Following Emirates’ record 50 777-300ER order last November, the backlog now stands at 288 aircraft, which will put the final fleet at around 600 aircraft; effectively matching the number of aircraft delivered for all other 777 models combined. While the secondary market is non-existent, given the aggressive pricing seen for sale leasebacks over the past five years, the appetite for the aircraft has remained relentless throughout the current financial crisis. Naturally, this is expected to change as the competition gathers pace, but fielding a new product with that much new technology against a design that has evolved over 30 years will be a tough call.

Region Pacific Rim Middle East Europe Asia North America Africa South America Undisclosed

Delivered 120 92 56 22 12 11 4 0 317

Backlog 82 115 26 7 28 0 8 22 288

February 2012 Appraisal Values: Boeing 777-300ER, GE90-115B
Year of Delivery 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 CMV 158.40 142.58 132.32 122.88 114.97 108.61 102.77 97.39 92.93 Base Values - Inflated at 2.5% per annum 2012 160.00 145.49 135.02 125.39 117.32 110.83 104.87 99.37 94.83 2013 149.77 136.81 127.10 118.10 110.58 104.84 98.97 94.24 89.54 2014 140.71 128.66 119.59 111.20 104.48 98.82 93.74 88.87 84.81 2015 132.20 120.94 112.48 104.95 98.37 93.49 88.29 84.06 80.34 2016 124.13 113.62 106.04 98.69 92.95 87.94 83.40 79.53 75.87 2017 116.49 106.99 99.59 93.14 87.31 82.95 78.79 74.98 71.79 2018 109.57 100.36 93.87 87.37 82.25 78.26 74.18 70.84 67.65 2019 102.65 94.47 87.93 82.19 77.48 73.56 69.97 66.64 63.14 2020 96.50 88.38 82.60 77.31 72.72 69.28 65.71 62.08 59.78 2021 90.14 82.89 77.58 72.43 68.36 64.94 61.08 58.66 56.74 2022 84.43 77.73 72.56 67.98 63.96 60.23 57.60 55.57 53.82

“CMV” = Current Market Value. Projected Base Values have been inflated at 2.5% per annum. The Base Value of an aircraft assumes its physical condition is average for an aircraft of its type and age, and its maintenance time status is at mid-life, mid-time (or benefiting from an above-average maintenance status if it is new or nearly new, as the case may be). All values have been

determined in accordance with ISTAT definitions of Base Value and Current Market Value and therefore relate to a single asset only. The aircraft values stated herein are the product and the property of independent third-party sources, and ISTAT neither approves nor endorses the information contained herein or the use thereof for any purpose whatsoever

42 The official publication of the International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading


http://www.ISTAT.org

Jetrader - March/April 2012

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Jetrader - March/April 2012

A Message from the President
Calendar/News
Q&A: Honoring ISTAT Award Winner Henry Hubschman
Export Credit Evolves
A320 Family: A Continuous Investment in Success
Financier Liability Protection Further Eroded in Florida
Put Your Two Cents In
ISTAT Members Fly to Honor “Sully”
ISTAT Scholarships Changing Lives
ISTAT Foundation 2011 Grant Recipients
Aircraft Appraisals
From the ISTAT Foundation
How to Be a Memorable Leader
Prepare Yourself for the Challenge of Change
ISTAT Members on the Move
Advertiser.com/Advertiser Index
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - cover1
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - cover2
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 3
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 4
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - A Message from the President
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 6
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 7
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 8
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - Calendar/News
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 10
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - Q&A: Honoring ISTAT Award Winner Henry Hubschman
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 12
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 13
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - Export Credit Evolves
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 15
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 16
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 17
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - A320 Family: A Continuous Investment in Success
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 19
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 20
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 21
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - Financier Liability Protection Further Eroded in Florida
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 23
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 24
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 25
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - Put Your Two Cents In
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 27
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 28
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 29
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - ISTAT Members Fly to Honor “Sully”
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 31
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 32
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 33
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - ISTAT Scholarships Changing Lives
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 35
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 36
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 37
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 38
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - ISTAT Foundation 2011 Grant Recipients
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 40
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - Aircraft Appraisals
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 42
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 43
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 44
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - From the ISTAT Foundation
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - How to Be a Memorable Leader
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 47
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 48
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 49
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - Prepare Yourself for the Challenge of Change
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 51
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - ISTAT Members on the Move
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 53
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - Advertiser.com/Advertiser Index
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - cover3
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - cover4
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0113
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0612
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0512
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0412
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0312
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0212
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTR0011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0112
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0611
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0511
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0411
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0311
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0211
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0111
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0610
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0510
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0410
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0310
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0210
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0110
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0609
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0509
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0409
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0309
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0209
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0109
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0608
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0508
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0408
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0308
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0208
https://www.nxtbookmedia.com