Jetrader - September/October 2009 - 22

Demand is forecast to remain strong for new, more efficient commercial airplanes in response to high fuel prices, aging fleets and environmental concerns. The total in-service fleet is now forecast to nearly double from today’s 18,800 airplanes to 35,600, a slight reduction over last year’s report. Of those, 58 percent (16,800) are expected to be new airplanes driven by growth needs, 42 percent (12,200) will be replacements for current planes, and 6,600 (a third of today’s fleet) are expected to still be in operation. Those numbers are down a total 400 units from the company’s previous report. replacement airplanes as less-efficient jets are retired. Robust growth in China, the Middle East, India and other emerging markets with dynamic populations and growing incomes will lead toward a more balanced airplane demand worldwide (see deliveries and market by region chart). The growing Asia Pacific region will command the largest market in both units and value with 31 percent (8,960) of the units and 36 percent of the value ($1.13 trillion). Airlines are predicted to grow by responding to their passengers’ preference for more flight choices, lower fares and direct access to a wider range shift toward larger freighters and new, more-efficient airplanes will help keep air cargo transport affordable. The world freighter fl eet (see chart) is expected to increase from 1,940 to 3,250 airplanes—an increase of two thirds. This growth will require 2,760 freighters worth $170B at today’s catalog prices. Additions to the fleet will include 710 new-production freighters and 2,050 airplanes converted from passenger models. “Despite the near-term slowdown, we remain confident in the strength of the global air cargo market over the long With global cargo undergoing the worst traffic contraction seen since the dawn of the jet age, the CMO takes a fresh look at the freighter market since Boeing issued its biennial World Air Cargo Forecast last fall. Airplane Productivity Adding a twist this year, Boeing includes a view of how constant improvements to airplanes themselves have resulted in considerable productivity gains as measured by revenue passenger miles. According to CMO Forecaster Michael Warner, the difference over 20 years has been dramatic (see productivity chart). “Looking back, airplanes have seen a nearly 40 percent productivity improvement since 1988, and it’s a trend we expect to continue,” Warner said. Improvements have allowed more seats, greater range, higher utilization and increased load factors, resulting in gains in RPM capability. “If we didn’t have those gains, we’d need a lot more airplanes in the fleet by 2028, on the order of close to 12,000,” he added. of destinations. CMO’s view is that carriers thus will focus on offering more flights using more efficient airplanes, rather than on using significantly larger airplanes. haul,” Tinseth said. “The air cargo industry is supported by sound fundamentals—the imperative for speed, consumer product innovation and global industrial interdependence are key drivers—and new air trade routes will expand service coverage.” Updated Freighter Forecast With global cargo undergoing the worst traffic contraction seen since the dawn of the jet age, the CMO takes a fresh look at the freighter market since Boeing issued its biennial World Air Cargo Forecast last fall. The new forecast reflects near-term contractions in both world industrial production and overall international trade and considers the significant cargo traffic reductions to this point. The CMO projects long-term global air cargo traffic to grow at an average annual rate of 5.4 percent through 2028. In line with anticipated long-term trade growth, this will lead to overall cargo traffic nearly tripling over the period. A Improving Information Delivery Among improvements to keep the Outlook fresh, the manufacturer this year moved the report to an entirely Web-based publication, eliminating traditional printing and speeding the delivery time to readers. It also has added interactive tools on the Web version to allow users to more quickly and easily make use of the forecast data. For those who might miss the actual CMO booklet, there is a printable PDF version available on the company’s Web site. To review the complete report or download the PDF, visit www.boeing.com/cmo. Thanks to Boeing for supplying editorial content for this story. Regional strengths The Outlook expects the U.S. and European markets to see more 22 The official publication of the International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading
http://www.boeing.com/cmo

Jetrader - September/October 2009

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Jetrader - September/October 2009

Jetrader - September/October 2009
A Message from the President
Contents
Calendar/News
Q&A
Reaching for the Sky
Processing Paris
Looking Long-Term at Global Aviation
From Trashed to Treasure
Jetliners Parked and Available
Aircraft Appraisals
From the ISTAT Foundation
Aviation History
Advertiser Index
Jetrader - September/October 2009 - Jetrader - September/October 2009
Jetrader - September/October 2009 - Cover2
Jetrader - September/October 2009 - A Message from the President
Jetrader - September/October 2009 - 4
Jetrader - September/October 2009 - Contents
Jetrader - September/October 2009 - 6
Jetrader - September/October 2009 - Calendar/News
Jetrader - September/October 2009 - Q&A
Jetrader - September/October 2009 - 9
Jetrader - September/October 2009 - 10
Jetrader - September/October 2009 - 11
Jetrader - September/October 2009 - Reaching for the Sky
Jetrader - September/October 2009 - 13
Jetrader - September/October 2009 - 14
Jetrader - September/October 2009 - 15
Jetrader - September/October 2009 - Processing Paris
Jetrader - September/October 2009 - 17
Jetrader - September/October 2009 - 18
Jetrader - September/October 2009 - 19
Jetrader - September/October 2009 - Looking Long-Term at Global Aviation
Jetrader - September/October 2009 - 21
Jetrader - September/October 2009 - 22
Jetrader - September/October 2009 - 23
Jetrader - September/October 2009 - 24
Jetrader - September/October 2009 - 25
Jetrader - September/October 2009 - 26
Jetrader - September/October 2009 - From Trashed to Treasure
Jetrader - September/October 2009 - 28
Jetrader - September/October 2009 - 29
Jetrader - September/October 2009 - Jetliners Parked and Available
Jetrader - September/October 2009 - 31
Jetrader - September/October 2009 - 32
Jetrader - September/October 2009 - Aircraft Appraisals
Jetrader - September/October 2009 - 34
Jetrader - September/October 2009 - 35
Jetrader - September/October 2009 - 36
Jetrader - September/October 2009 - From the ISTAT Foundation
Jetrader - September/October 2009 - Aviation History
Jetrader - September/October 2009 - 39
Jetrader - September/October 2009 - 40
Jetrader - September/October 2009 - Advertiser Index
Jetrader - September/October 2009 - 42
Jetrader - September/October 2009 - Cover3
Jetrader - September/October 2009 - Cover4
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