Jetrader - September/October 2011 - 37

for more than one-third of new deliveries worldwide, while the Middle East and Latin America will also continue to show very strong growth. (See Chart 3, page 37).

More Freighter Fleet Growth
On average over the next 20 years, air cargo traffic is expected to grow at a rate of 5.6 percent. Thus the new forecast expects the world freighter fleet to more than double with a market preference in the large freighter segment (more than 88.2 tons capacity/80 tonnes) favoring new aircraft two to one. “When you’re operating a long-range freighter for a customer, what’s most important for you is cash operating cost as well as dependability and reliability. And that’s exactly what new freighters like the 777 and 747-8 provide. In medium-size freighters, the majority prefer conversions, since most are in express operations when utilization is low and the importance is on capital costs,” Tinseth said. (See Chart 4, page 37.)

Asia Pacific to lead regional growth, outpacing world average – The Asia Pacific
region, which includes China, India and other emerging markets, is expected to take 11,450 new airplanes over the next two decades, according to Boeing’s 2011 Current Market Outlook forecast. European and North American carriers will continue to see demand for replacement airplanes as they retire older, less fuel-efficient models and are expected to take about 7,500 airplanes each. They are followed by Latin America and the Middle East, at about 2,500 each, then the CIS (1,080) and Africa (800). (Boeing graphic)

Deep Dive into Infrastructure
In sharing its latest market view, the Boeing team highlights the depths it explored in talking about the annual forecast’s usefulness. “The CMO isn’t an extrapolation of industry order trends. For example, this year we looked at infrastructure issues, especially around airports, in the greatest depth that we’ve ever done and, I’d guess, deeper than anyone’s done in developing a forecast. We’ve tried to take what we’ve learned and understand how it will influence the way airplanes change over time,” Tinseth said. The emergence of and impacts from China’s high-speed rail network is a prime example. “We looked market by market at all the planned routes for high-speed rail there,” said head forecaster Warner. “We compared train speeds to that of aircraft. What we found was the high-speed rail is going to affect air travel there. But when you look at the total Chinese market, it’s pretty small, in the range of one to two percent. In fact, you might argue that high-speed rail helps increase connectivity in China, which helps influence the economy there to grow and, as a result, may actually help stimulate more air travel,” Warner said. “Our forecast helps shapes our strategy and helps shape our long-range business

Freighter fleet to grow – According to Boeing’s latest market outlook, the world’s freighter fleet will grow by more than two-thirds—with a shift toward larger freighters. By 2028, it will expand from 1,940 airplanes in 2008 to 3,250. Taking the forecasted 1,450 retirements into account, 2,760 airplanes will be added to the freighter fleet by 2028. (Boeing graphic) plan,” Tinseth added. “We share our forecast with our customers and suppliers to help in their planning process. So the better our forecast, the better our strategy and our business plan, and better partners we can be with suppliers as well as customers.” Thanks to Boeing for supplying editorial content for this story.

CMO on the Web
Since 2009, Boeing has moved the Current Market Outlook to primarily a Web-based publication. The report and a feature, which provides an interactive database of forecast numbers, can be found at www.boeing.com/ cmo. For those who miss the printed copy, the site includes a PDF version of the booklet that can be printed out. Jetrader 37


http://www.boeing.com/

Jetrader - September/October 2011

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Jetrader - September/October 2011

A Message from the President
Calendar/News
Q&A: Henri Courpron
State of the Regions: Europe
Paris Air Show Review
Thank You Sponsors
All About Growth
Predictive Maintenance in Aging Aircraft Systems
Have Faith
Parts on Demand
Culture of Accountability
Aircraft Appraisals
From the ISTAT Foundation
Aviation History
Advertiser.com / Advertiser Index
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - Cover1
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - cover2
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - 3
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - 4
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - A Message from the President
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - 6
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - 7
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - 8
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - Calendar/News
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - 10
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - Q&A: Henri Courpron
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - 12
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - 13
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - 14
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - 15
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - 16
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - 17
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - State of the Regions: Europe
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - 19
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - 20
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - 21
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - 22
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - 23
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - Paris Air Show Review
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - 25
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - 26
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - 27
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - 28
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - 29
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - 30
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - 31
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - 32
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - Thank You Sponsors
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - All About Growth
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - 35
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - 36
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - 37
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - Predictive Maintenance in Aging Aircraft Systems
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - 39
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - 40
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - 41
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - 42
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - Have Faith
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - 44
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - Parts on Demand
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - 46
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - Culture of Accountability
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - 48
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - Aircraft Appraisals
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - 50
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - 51
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - 52
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - From the ISTAT Foundation
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - Aviation History
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - 55
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - 56
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - Advertiser.com / Advertiser Index
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - 58
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - cover3
Jetrader - September/October 2011 - cover4
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