Jetrader - November/December 2009 - 16

appraisal Boeing 737-800 Olga Razzhivina Senior Analyst Ascend Tel: +44 0 2085 646703 olga.razzhivina@ascendworldwide.com Fleet Overview There are currently 1,670 B737-800 aircraft in passenger service with 114 airline & non-airline operators, eight aircraft in storage with 5 companies and 1,382 aircraft on order with 61 customers. There are currently 906 737-800 aircraft in passenger service/on order with 45 carriers in the Asia-Paciﬁc region, 897 aircraft with 46 airlines in Europe, 555 aircraft in North America, 258 aircraft on order from undisclosed areas, 194 aircraft with 5 airlines in Latin America/Caribbean, 117 aircraft with 11 operators in Africa, and 125 aircraft in service or on order with 9 operators in the Middle East. The main operators include Ryanair, 312 aircraft in service/on order, American Airlines 172, GOL Linhas Aereas 137, Continental Airlines 119, and Air China with 104. Speciﬁcations: (with winglets) MTOW 155500 Engines CFM56-7B24 Current and Future Market Outlook Market values have fallen by 7-8% since the beginning of 2009, whereas the B737-800 lease rates decreased some 5-6%. The market values are in effect up to some 7% below their base (for the newest builds) or at par with it. The eight parked aircraft is 0.5%.of the total; six are scheduled to go back into service. This is one of the best performing types despite the failures in the European charter/ low cost sector in the latter half of 2008, which put a signiﬁcant number of B737-800s into the market. Despite some 20 deferrals there have been no B737-800 order cancellations in 2009 to date. This aircraft type has a major presence with scheduled, charter and low-cost airlines, which allow aircraft to be placed quickly once it becomes available. The B737-800 remains very competitive against its rival A320 and offers nine more seats; it has a good backlog and is in all the major markets—very popular with LCCs. Boeing is launching an upgrade to the B737NG, including an updated cockpit and cabin. American is replacing MD-80s with B737-800s and the type looks certain to gain more orders for replacement in the U.S. market in the 2010s as the market recovers. No replacement for the B737NG is foreseen until around 2020. By the time of any replacement, approaching 4,000 aircraft are expected to be in service, which will mean it remains as a key narrowbody type for another ten years, at least. Appraisal Values Year of Build 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 CMV $23.15m $24.40m $26.40m $28.65m $31.40m $35.15m $40.15m Base $23.25m $25.00m $27.50m $30.25m $33.50m $37.75m $43.50m 2010 $21.64m $23.22m $25.49m $27.98m $30.92m $34.77m $39.98m 2012 $18.69m $19.98m $21.84m $23.87m $26.27m $29.42m $33.69m 2014 $16.09m $17.12m $18.64m $20.29m $22.24m $24.80m $28.28m 2016 $13.80m $14.62m $15.85m $17.19m $18.76m $20.83m $23.65m 2018 $11.78m $12.43m $13.42m $14.49m $15.75m $17.42m $19.69m CMV = Current Market Value. Values are in millions of USD. The aircraft values stated herein are the product and property of independent third-party sources, and ISTAT neither approves nor endorses the information contained herein or the use thereof for any purpose whatsoever. Information current as of 9/10/2009. 16 The ofﬁcial publication of the International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading

Jetrader - November/December 2009

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