JED - October 2011 - (Page 32)

By Dr. David L. Rockwell, Teal Group This article will assess the future of the RF countermeasures and electronic attack market in the US, based on Teal Group Corporation’s ten-year forecasts of the RF ECM market. The forecast includes all air, ground and naval RF ECM funding available to US manufacturers, as well as radar warning receivers (RWR), but not signals intelligence (SIGINT) systems primarily aimed at intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR). Numerical 10-year forecasts include current and planned systems and programs, as well as projections of future funding. Key to our analysis is the future of major US aircraft programs, and we will briefly look at JSF, F-22 and other major platforms. Our comprehensive RF ECM forecast shows a seemingly optimistic growth in funding over the next decade, but it is important to remember that while DOD funding for many platform programs may decline (aside from JSF), upgrades to thousands of aircraft flying today will benefit from the end of platform 32 The Journal of Electronic Defense | October 2011 RF ECM Market Forecast RDT&E+Procurement Available to the U.S. 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 Naval RF ECM Ground RF ECM Air RWR Air RF ECM CAGR: 3.8% (FY11-16); 2.3% (FY11-20) (FY11 $ Billions) procurements, such as the F-22. Each $150 million for one F-22 could fund a dozen or more electronic warfare (EW) suite upgrades for F-15s and F-16s. The DOD’s recent Aircraft Investment Plan, Fiscal Years 2011-2040 shows the US Navy spending more for aircraft than the US Air Force in many years, and part of that gap will be due to USAF upgrades taking precedence over new platforms. On the other hand, optimism about the services “getting back into EW” may suffer if real budget cuts are required in the next few years. With international threats from electronic, directed-energy, information and cyber operations growing quickly, new funding will be necessary. However, it could be allocated to non-traditional EW markets, or awarded to non-defense companies. Equally, as we discuss further below, Teal Group sees some major EW programs – even some viewed as crucial to the future of the industry, such as the Next Generation Jammer (NGJ) – as very likely to be cut or delayed. Combined with increasing threats to the massive JSF program, our forecast could easily shift to a flat or worse EW market in a shrinking DOD budget environment. The fastest-growing segments will be the naval and ground ECM markets, with CAGRs of 15.2 percent/6.9 percent (naval) and 1.5 percent/3.6 percent RF ECM Programs (FY11 $ Millions) RDT&E+Procurement Air RF ECM Air RWR Naval RF ECM Ground RF ECM Total FY11 2,045 721 360 314 3,440 FY12 2,284 665 429 315 3,693 FY13 2,400 654 471 312 3,837 CAGR: 3.8% (FY11-16); 2.3% (FY11-20) FY14 2,331 730 588 323 3,972 FY15 2,527 672 563 334 4,096 FY16 2,361 720 731 338 4,151 FY17 2,528 789 749 339 4,405 FY18 2,419 882 690 371 4,362 FY19 2,206 902 738 416 4,262 FY20 2,290 845 657 432 4,223 Total (FY11-FY20) 23,391 7,581 5,976 3,494 40,441

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of JED - October 2011

The View From Here
Conferences Calendar
Courses Calendar
From the President
The Monitor
Washington Report
RF EW Program Forecast
EW Ideas and Innovation
Technology Survey: Portable and Flightline EW Testers
EW 101
AOC News
Index of Advertisers
JED Quick Look

JED - October 2011