NFPA Journal - Winter 2021 - 31
COVER STORY
I
N 2016, THE WORLD BANK GROUP, an international aid
and investment organization, published a 132-page report
that offered an astonishing preview of an impending global
building spree. " New urban development between 2015 and
2030 will exceed all previous urban development throughout
history, " the report predicted. " Of the area expected to be
urbanized by 2030, 60 percent remains to be built, primarily
in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. "
Fueling the surge, experts say, will be a mass human
migration away from rural villages to burgeoning mega-cities
as people seek jobs, housing, and medical care, and as they
attempt to escape poverty and climate disasters. By 2050,
the United Nations estimates that these cities will add 2.5
billion people-nearly the entire combined populations of
present-day China and India-and will double in area. A
staggering 90 percent of that growth will occur in Africa and
Asia, mostly in countries that the World Bank now defines as
low- and middle-income. As a result, cities in these generally
impoverished regions are expected to grow magnitudes
larger than any urban areas currently in existence.
The Nigerian city of Lagos, for example, already the
eighth-largest metro area in the world, could number 85 to
100 million residents by 2100, according to a population
model developed by researchers at the University of Ontario
Institute of Technology. African cities that today barely register
to most Westerners-Kinshasa, Dar es Salaam, Khartoum,
Niamey, Nairobi-could all have populations greater than 40
million by 2100, which would make them larger than today's
Tokyo, currently the world's most populated city at about
37.3 million. Even sleepy cities like Lilongwe and Blantyre,
both in the small African nation of Malawi, could grow from
barely a million residents to the size of present-day New
York (about 9 million) by 2075, according to the Canadian
model. Meanwhile, the Asian cities of Dhaka, Karachi, Kolkata,
Mumbai, and Delhi are each expected to surpass 30 million
residents by 2030 and number 50 to 60 million by the end of
the century. Under such a scenario, the UN predicts that the
building stock in cities in low- and middle-income countries
will double by 2050, further expanding and complicating an
already-sprawling urban landscape.
NFPA Journal - Winter 2021
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of NFPA Journal - Winter 2021
Contents
NFPA Journal - Winter 2021 - Cover1
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NFPA Journal - Winter 2021 - Contents
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