The Weekly - July 21, 2020 - 13

S P O N S O R E D CO N T E N T

plus Works In Process (WIP). Ask a bike, SUP,
active wear, golf, home workout, or outdoor
gear brand this question and the answer is that
they are sold out. If the spike in your business
resulted in a crater in your inventory, look at
your replenishment cycle. For example, if we
are in the ninth month and have a six-month
start to "on hand" the replenishment cycle,
Q1 is going to be very good. If you cannot fill
demand today, and cannot fill it for six months,
demand will continue to rise. The only question
is, by how much?
Will consumer behavior have an impact on
price?
To make an optimistic assumption: Many new
consumers are headed into our collective space.
Often, they are initially price conscious, but as
they progress, they will make upgrades. This
may be the single most important factor in
planning for 2021.

Smart Forecasting
for Spring 2021
There's a lot we don't know when we
look to next season-but there is a lot
we do know. SDSI has a plan to help you
navigate these uncertain waters.

t SDSI we have been involved in a big
ongoing discussion that applies to
everyone in the outdoor industry. It
started with a simple email from a longtime
SDSI member and mentor, Steve Mariucci. "I
would like to get a Zoom together with execs,
specifically from fitness and outdoor companies, who have seen an unexpected uptick in
demand as a result of COVID-19," he wrote.
"I want to talk 2021 demand forecasting. Will
increased demand remain? For how long? By
how much? Will consumers run out of cash?
Will the government continue to provide cash
payments to furloughed/unemployed workers? I have no solid answers, but would like to
round-table with some SDSI pros if possible."
How can you know the unknowable?
Obviously, you cannot. But through our

ensuing meeting, we quickly discovered that
we could begin to sort the knowable from the
unknowable. Digging into Steve's questions,
we started discussing what could cause an
"unexpected uptick in demand." Is your sport
or activity social-distancing friendly? Is it an
individual activity or a team sport? Is it a gym,
outdoor, or home activity? Does your business
model favor retail or e-commerce? Is your ecomm platform robust? Are a majority of your
brick-and-mortar retailers open for business?
Are new consumer habits emerging that are
notable and perhaps transformational?
Many of Steve's questions cannot be answered,
but we do know some things: Personal health is
now a top priority for a majority of our consumers. Being healthy is a fundamental component
of surviving COVID-19. Large percentages
of our workforce are no longer tethered to an
office and reorganizing their days to include
home or outdoor workouts. With retail closings,
consumers' gear needs for athletic pursuits must
largely come from on-line retailers.
How do I assess my 2021 buy?
First, put your business through the filters
above. If it emerges with all positives in the
process, next assess your on-hand inventory,

Should I bet the farm?
The market is so nuanced today that an all-in
campaign means exactly that-all or nothing.
Perhaps just betting the cow or goat is safer. Just
remember, there are indeed knowables in this
tumultuous time. Do your homework; look at
the macros; assess your ability to respond in a
timely way. These are all practical steps to create
a plan for Spring 2021.
Do youn want to continue this conversation
on Spring 2021 demand forecasting?
Join SDSI for a discussion and strategy session
on Wednesday, July 22 at 5 p.m. ET / 2 p.m. PT.
Hosted by Executive Director, Bob Rief (you
might know him from Nordica, Raichle, Merrill,
Nike or OTZ footwear) and joined by executives
from the active lifestyle community, this session
is meant to drive discussion, share insights, and
leave you with guidance and resources to help
inform your planning for next year.
Register now at sdsi.outdoorretaileronline.
com/view/event/v7h2q
Stop by the SDSI booth at Outdoor Retailer Online through Aug. 31 to learn more about joining
our community of active lifestyle executives
and our wildly successful mentoring programs,
and to enter to win a free one-hour executivelevel business mentoring session.

http://www.sdsportinnovators.org/ https://sdsi.outdoorretaileronline.com/view/event/v7h2q https://sdsi.outdoorretaileronline.com/view/event/v7h2q https://conveyservices.typeform.com/to/Nngdda https://conveyservices.typeform.com/to/Nngdda http://www.sdsportinnovators.org/

The Weekly - July 21, 2020

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