The Pellucid Perspective - September 2011 - (Page 5)

DEMOGRAPHICS Shift happens: The impact of Hispanic growth on local golf markets By Jim Koppenhaver he first pictures of how America has changed demograph- Potential Index (RPI) component, we haven’t historically tried ically since the last actual census in 2000 are emerging to quantify the cumulative effect over the decade using the 2010 and, like golf shots, each result makes someone happy. At actual Census numbers (the full range of variables required to the summary level, population growth was 9.7% for the decade replace all the elements in the software tool haven’t yet been (or 0.9% annualized, just slightly below the previous decades’ completely published, so the GLMA analyses are still using the annual growth rate of 1.2%) and we crossed into 2011 with 2010 projections off the 2000 actual Census). 309M people according to the latest “actual” count of heads. A recent article and online tool made available on cnn.com Raw population growth is generally a positive factor for most which maps the ethnicity changes across the US by county goods manufacturers and general service industries as it creates over the decade, (http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/defining. additional “consumers.” Recreation, however, has additional america/map/index.html?&hpt=hp_c2), was very helpful in befactors which can mitigate the benefits of population growth ing able to compile a few representative examples of the impact as empirically good: First, Americans’ interest in recreation as a of changing demographics on local golf markets and, indirectly, whole waxes and wanes and second, individual recreational pur- the golf economy at the national level. We’ve previously quansuits have periods of being in or out of vogue within the larger tified and discussed the fact that golf, when viewed through recreational involvement cycles. the lens of ethnicity using the metrics of participation and freOne of the headlines coming out of the 2010 Census is that quency, is currently a sport driven by the NHW population, folAmerica is becoming a more ethnically diverse nation, with the lowed by Asians with Blacks and Hispanics being significantly primary rising tide being continued growth in Hispanics. At lower contributors. Space in this article doesn’t permit the the national level, the 2010 full range of explanations, enumeration of America Hispanic growth in select number of L.A. DMA counties but the summary ones showed Hispanics growing will suffice, which are a) Net White, during the decade at nearly the expense of golf, b) the Net Rds Golfer Non-Hisp 4x the rate of overall popufact that golf is not one of Change Change Pop Chng Hisp Pop lation (37% vs. 10%) and County their youth programs-based (Ks) (Ks) Chng (Ks) (Ks) now comprising roughly sports (i.e. large numbers of Los Angeles –231 +447 –8.5 –197 16% of the population (up kids are exposed to it early +27 +80 +0.1 –3 from 13% previously). The Ventura in life) and c) it’s not fol+75 +332 +4.2 +68 distribution shift is com- San Bernardino lowed at the professional ing primarily at the expense Riverside level by their adults. The +80 +436 +24.8 +481 of Non-Hispanic Whites table at left quantifies what Orange –131 +137 –9.0 –191 (NHW), which in the 2010 is happening to the golfer tally now represent 65% of and rounds base in a select the population, down from 69% at the last actual counting in number of Los Angeles DMA counties as a result of the shift2000. Beneath the national level, there are even more dramatic ing demographic profile as outlined in the 2010 Census. swings taking place in the most populous counties in America. What we see in the table above is that the changing ethnicFor example, two sizeable counties in the Los Angeles Desig- ity mix is playing out in several variations depending on a golf nated Marketing Area (DMA), San Bernardino and Riverside, facility’s county location within Los Angeles. The worst-case saw increases of 50% and 78% over the decade off sizeable bases, scenarios are the “bookends” in the table above of Los Angeles bringing the Hispanic population component to 332,000 and and Orange counties. In both cases, it appears that there is gen436,000 Hispanics respectively. erally a substitution of the NHW population with the growing We somewhat stumbled upon this particular dynamic and Hispanic population. In those cases, there is significant negathe impact it is likely having on several key golf markets when tive net effect because we’re trading out a historical population multiple clients approached Pellucid associate Harvey Silver- of NHWs with a participation rate for golf of 11% and a Play man and asked if we could attempt to quantify the potential Rate (rds/capita/yr) of 2.2 for a new population of Hispanics loss in golfers and rounds due to ethnic shifts within their Cali- who participate at the rate of 4% and have a Play Rate of 0.7. fornia markets. While Pellucid’s Golf Local Market Analyzer The net is that we’re most likely seeing both golfer and fre(GLMA) market analysis tool does have an ethnicity Rounds quency declines due to these ethnicity shifts in addition to the www.PellucidcorP.com T The Pellucid PersPecTive 5 http://www.cnn.com http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/defining.america/map/index.html?&hpt=hp_c2 http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/defining.america/map/index.html?&hpt=hp_c2 http://WWW.PELLUCIDCORP.COM

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - September 2011

The Pellucid Perspective - September 2011
Contents
The China syndrome
Shift happens: The impact of Hispanic growth on local golf markets
Promoting rounds at rate card — a novel concept?
Promoting rounds at rate card — a novel concept?
There’s golf in them thar’ (sand) hills
August weather impact, July utilization
Seattle, WA Core Business Statistical Area (CBSA)
Seattle, WA Core Business Statistical Area (CBSA)
The long and the short of it

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