The Pellucid Perspective - November 2011 - (Page 10)
INDUSTRY SCORECARD
October weather impact: No favors from Mother Nature
M
other Nature took a final parting shot at golf as the season winds down in the northern climes with Golf Playable Hours (GPH) coming in 3% below last October at the national level. This continued the Year-to-Date (YtD) erosion of GPH which now also registers at -3% vs. year ago. Regional breadth for the YtD period is still negative at 1:2.1 with 11 regions having favorable weather offset by 23 regions with unfavorable weather (11 in the neutral zone of +/- 2%).
October YtD 2011
YtD Capacity Rds, % Chng vs. YA Weekday GPH % Chng vs. YA Weekend GPH % Chng vs. YA YtD Up/Down Breadth Ratio # of Regions Up # of Regions Down YtD % Utilization Rate (Sep ’11) –2.8% –3.3% –1.5% 1:2.1 11 23 52%
YtD % Utilization Rate Pt. Chng vs. YA (Sep ’11) –0.4 pts
The one saving grace continues to be the fact that the GPH decline is being driven more by weekdays (-3.3%) than weekends (-1.5%). Given our higher utilization and rates on weekends, this will slightly offset the rounds and revenue impact of the unfavorable weather this year. Looking back on September rounds demand as reported by Golf Datatech/NGF to calculate the facility Utilization Rate (UR), the month showed a significant slippage to 49% (comprised of a 4% decrease in Played Rounds against favorable weather of +3% in GPH). Based on that utilization drop, the YtD period Utilization eroded slightly to 52% (comprised of a 4% decrease in Played Rounds against a 3% decline in Capacity Rounds) which is 1 point lower than the 2010 year-end value. Among the YtD market utilization “winners”, among the markets that matter in rounds contribution, are Dallas and Seattle up 7 and 5 points respectively while the “biggest losers” are Cincinnati and Denver losing 6 and 4 points respectively. Dallas increases utilization via a slight rounds increase amidst unfavorable weather while Seattle gains by holding rounds against very unfavorable weather. Cincinnati’s decline is driven by rounds loss that exceeds the weather decline while Denver only manages to hold rounds despite very favorable weather. Jim Koppenhaver comments, “Pre-Pellucid the industry headline would have been “September rounds drop amid unfavorable weather conditions” (because we all know that rounds declines are driven by weather whereas rounds increases are (See Industry Scorecard on page 14) November 2011
10 The Pellucid PersPecTive
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - November 2011