The Pellucid Perspective - February 2013 - (Page 10)

INDUSTRY SCORECARD January golf weather impact: Down...but not unexpected J anuary weather is the first of many ugly comparables vs. 2012 we expect in 2013 as Golf Playable Hours (GPH) registered down 13% vs. the same period last year at the national level (this also becomes the Year-to-Date value since we’re only 1 month into the year). That sets the initial breadth ratio at the national level for the Year-to-Date (YtD) period a 1:8 with 2 regions having favorable weather against 16 regions with unfavorable weather (no regions are in the neutral zone of +/- 2% and the remaining 27 regions are out-of-season). Look- January YtD 2013 YtD YtD Capacity Rds, % Chng vs. YA –13% YtD Up/Down Breadth Ratio # of Regions Up # of Regions Down YtD % Utilization Rate (Dec ’12) YtD % Utilization Rate Pt. Chng vs. YA (Dec ’12) 10 The Pellucid PersPecTive 1:8 2 16 51% –1 pts ing at YtD weather impact performance by day-of-week, the unfavorable weather was slightly more skewed to weekends vs. weekdays. For the full-year forecast, our initial call is that 2013 will give back all of 2012’s favorability, which simply means that we’ll return back to the long-term averages. (So, no Armageddon, but fighting tough “comps” all year vs. 2012). The values for the above two metrics, the monthly time series for the entire year as well as market-level Utilization for the preceding month, are available to Pellucid Publications Members via the Client section at the Pellucid website (go to www.pellucidcorp. com for information or to subscribe). Looking back on December rounds played (as reported by Golf Datatech/NGF) to calculate the facility % Utilization Rate (UR), rounds demand (-4%) trailed the neutral weather (+2%), resulting in a UR level for the month of 49%, which lags the benchmark 2011 year-end value of 52% by -3 pts. For the YtD period, the UR held its own (51%) and finished the year down only 1 point, comprised of a healthy increase in rounds demand (+6%) slightly trailing even better weather (+8%). At the market level for the YtD period, the UR breadth continued in the negative with a 1:2 ratio of favorable/unfavorable markets (comprised of 9 markets up vs. 14 down and 38 in the neutral zone), as most markets have been unable to keep pace on the rounds demand side against the incredible and broad-based weather favorability. February 2013

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - February 2013

The Pellucid Perspective - February 2013
Part-time golf courses: A concept worth trying?
Bankruptcy courts protect course revenues from lenders
Show notes from 35,000 feet
Volunteers may not be free
January golf weather impact: Down...but not unexpected
Golfers not goin’ to Kansas City
Movie time: License required
Concert Golf Partners buys CC at Woodmore in D.C. Area
Bishop’s tenure as PGA President promises deep breaths of fresh air

The Pellucid Perspective - February 2013