Pellucid Perspective - March 2013 - (Page 18)

THE LAST WORD Casey at the bat J ust finished reading the most recent Gilford Securities Golf Industry Research missive from Casey Al- exander, a Gilford Securities analyst and part-time writer/blogger. For those of us well outside the ranks of the golf industry’s one-percenters who spend little time perusing the financial trade papers and don’t have a broker on speed dial, Casey’s observations and analyses of Callaway Golf ’s stock potential are as close as we come to insider financial information. Fortunately for those of us who have neither the spare cash nor the inclination to bet on Chip Brewer’s ability to restore Callaway’s fortunes, Casey is also an astute observer of the golf industry as a whole. His bank balance may rise and fall on Wall Street, but his heart really starts thumping at addresses like Magnolia Lane and 17 Mile Drive. His report, labeled Part I of the 2013 PGA Merchandise Show Report, is (thank God) not a recital of the latest round of golf products on display in Orlando. Rather he touches on a number of the pressing issues in today’s golf industry. We (editorial we) agree with “most” of his conclusions, outlined as follow. Alexander begins by hailing the PGA of America’s selection of Pete Bevacqua as its new CEO to replace Joe Steranka. Casey notes that the PGA has accepted a leading role in various Grow-the-Game efforts, and to accomplish that, will need a business expert to form what Alexander tabs a National Sales & Marketing organization within the PGA. Bevacqua, the first-ever Chief Business Officer with the USGA before coming over to the PGA, has that experience. Echoing observations made in this publication, Alexander also takes the PGA to task for historically creating a Grow the Game playbook and then essentially delegating its execution to facility assistant pros who have neither the skills nor the desire to put it into play. Alexander notes that creating Regional Marketing Managers, engaging Head Professionals and supporting those 18 THE PELLUCID PERSPECTIVE efforts on the front lines with guidance and incentives will cost the PGA some money and lots of time. (Tat echoes a thought bandied about among the Pellucid staff that perhaps the PGA Tour in particular might allocate a larger chunk of its money to the game that feeds it in lieu of some of the showy donations to local non-golf related charities who have other donor sources). On the 2012 uptick in rounds, Casey finds some fault with Pellucid’s contention that the reported 5.7 percent increase in rounds last year was entirely due to dramatically more favorable weather than normal across the country. Alexander acknowledges the weather favorability, but says in recent years, the industry has been in such a slump that it has managed to under-perform the weather no matter how nice it was. (Pellucid’s Golf Playable Hours data indicates that the industry still under-performed, albeit slightly, even in balmy 2012, i.e. the rounds increase did not match the increase in favorable golf weather). Going forward, Alexander cites the skyrocketing stock market as a salve to cost-ofgolf and time concerns, and contends that some of whatever motivated people to play more golf in 2012 will have a carryover effect in 2013. (We can only hope Casey’s optimism on that score bears fruit somewhat more quickly than his forecast of an equipment sales “bounce” in 2010, which actually occurred in 2012 - nobody’s perfect). On the minus side of the equation, he points to the continued high unemployment rate, which he said particularly impacts private club play figures, due to members leaving the club and playing less when they have to pay as they go at public courses. (We are not sure that private club members are more prone to unemployment than public course golfers, although their numbers are smaller). And, of course no discussion of cur- rent golf issues would be complete without some anchored stroke discourse. Alexander, an excellent player in his own right (and, we assume, a good putter with a regular flat stick), is against the proposed anchoring ban, primarily because there is no empirical evidence that it inherently gives a player a competitive advantage. He predicts, however, as does a former USGA senior executive we spoke with who requested anonymity, that the USGA and R&A will stick to their guns and reinforce their rights to make and administer Te Rules of Golf by banning the stroke, despite protests from the PGA of America, PGA Tour, NGCOA and, we are fairly certain, thousands (millions?) of recreational golfers. Tat dire prediction will only reinforce Casey’s penultimate point in his analysis, which sums up my own feelings about the pronouncements emanating from Far Hills, NJ. To semi-paraphrase, Alexander wrote that the USGA Executive Committee contends that they are stewards of the traditions of the game but, he writes, “We believe they are rooted in preserving their own importance first. Each year they seem to do something that confirms our belief. No more fun for you.” Tat harkens to my own concern that the proposed anchoring ban is all about the USGA and R&A making a rule because they can, thus underlining their role as the game’s arbiters and stewards of the realm and completely overlooking the potential damage to participation in the very game that they are theoretically “defending.” Now that my use of the word “penulti- mate” has sent some scrambling for a dictionary, Casey’s ultimate (last) observation was that if the ban passes, slow play will become an even bigger problem as players line up their third putts on today’s speedy greens with their new standard putters. One, if that will be the case, perhaps long putters and anchored strokes do provide an advantage. On the other hand, if frustrated yippers or elderly or infirm golfers opt to give up the game, maybe the course will be less crowded. And what a wonderful thing that will be for the industry. —Jim Dunlap MARCH 2013

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Pellucid Perspective - March 2013

Pellucid Perspective - March 2013
Contents
3rd party management barriers falling at private clubs?
A need for technology restraint in golf
Course lures golf ’s missing generation
Picking the ‘low-hanging fruit’
February weather golf impact: No surprise...down
Portland golf has slight edge on Nike neighbor
Court approves sale of Paulson-owned resorts to Government of Singapore fund
Readers respond to ‘part-time golf ’
Casey at the bat

Pellucid Perspective - March 2013