The Pellucid Perspective - July 2013 - (Page 17)

MARKET FOCUS Boomers boost Sunshine State market, but clouds looming on the horizon Fort Myers, FL Core Business Statistical Area (CBSA) C ontinuing our countup (apologies to Casey Kasem) of the Top 25 US Golf Markets as quantified and ranked by Pellucid using a composite score of 10 measures (things like population size/growth, golfer base, rounds generation, supply/demand balance, utilization and RevpAR), this month we highlight the 3rd healthiest golf market in the country, Fort Myers, Florida. While perhaps not having the name recognition and prestige of its southern neighbor, Naples, it’s actually the strongest of any of the Florida markets based on Pellucid’s approach and metrics to market health. By rounds demand (our selection criteria for market inclusion in the Top 25 list), Fort Myers ranks number 20 of US markets with facility-reported annual demand of just over 3M rounds (remember this includes rounds by both local and nonlocal golfers). Looking at the golf consumer base, we see that Ft Myers is home to a relatively sparse 0.1M golfers (this is only local, resident population, obviously doesn’t count all the snowbirds). That golfer base is served by a relatively healthy 89 18hole equivalent (EHE) facilities, producing a ratio of less than 1K golfers per EHE which is abnormally low vs. the national average but, again, doesn’t incorporate the significant influence of the seasonal population. The supply mix vs. the national distribution across Pellucid’s five access/value/usage segments shows an incredible bias to the Private segment which represents over half of all supply (note all the red stars on the map). The balance of Value-added golf supply (Private & Public Premium) vs. Value golf (Public Value, Price and Learning & Practice) is 63%/37%, which is significantly skewed to Value-added vs. the national distribution of 50%/50%. Within Public-Regulation golf, the distribution between Premium/Value/Price is 25%/57%/18%, which represents a strong bias to the pricing mid-range, compared to the national distribution of 34%/42%/24%. (One has to consider, however, that the price segmentation is based on highest posted price so this isn’t incorporating the FL pricing structure of winter vs. summer golf ). All in all, Ft Myers is the prototypical high-end retirement-driven marketplace which is driven by a reasonable population (incorporating seasonal influx) but totally engaged in the golf lifestyle and playing at high frequency on relatively fixed pricing. During the “go-go” years of supply development (19902000), Ft Myers was near the head of the build-a-course-aday craze, adding 269 holes of supply or a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of >3%. Mitigating that robust annual increase in supply, however, was annual population growth of www.PellucidCorp.com Private PublicPremium PublicValue PublicPrice Golfer Base – Est. # of Golfers (Ks) – # of 18 Hole Equivalent Facilities – Golfers per 18-Hole Equiv. Learning & Practice Ft Myers, FL CBSA Future Facility Index vs. US 51.9 24,400 89 14,675 583 1,663 Supply Mix – Private – Pub-Prem – Pub-Val – Pub-Price – Learn & Prac Tot US 35 56% 7% 16% 5% 16% 27% 23% 28% 16% 6% 207 30 57 31 267 23% 4% 3% –15% 700 N/A –19% –19% 100 35.2 26.7 132 45% $2,105 44% $836 102 252 $27 $11 245 Supply/Demand Balance – ’00-’11 Cume Supply Growth/Decline – ’00-’11 Cume Rds Demand Growth/ Decline – ’00-’11 Cume Mkt Supply Dilution (-)/Absorption (+) Level* – Avg Ann Rds Velocity (ks per 18-hole Equiv.) Rounds & GF Revenue Health – % Utilization Rate – Avg. Ann. Rev. per Public Regulation EHE ($Ks) – Revenue per Available Round (RevpAR) * Period % Chng in Rds vs. Period % Chng in Supply + Inverse index, lower is better Above average level vs. US (Index >105) Average level vs. US (Index 95-104) Below average level vs. US (Index <95) The Pellucid PersPecTive 17 http://WWW.PELLUCIDCORP.COM

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - July 2013

The Pellucid Perspective - July 2013
Contents
GolfNow buys FORE! Reservations
An inside look at the Fore!-GolfNow deal
FORE! Reservations sells to GolfNow? Preposterous!
PGA of America, Tour (reluctantly) accept anchoring rule
An ominous April for equipment sales
Pace of play campaign picking up speed
June golf weather impact: Flat, but encouraging
Boomers boost Sunshine State market, but clouds looming on the horizon
Cliffs Communities emerge from bankruptcy, Tiger’s course still on hold
Golf fights back, finally

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