The Pellucid Perspective - August 2013 - (Page 4)
2013 mid-year review: Anyone get
the license plate of that truck?
By Jim Koppenhaver
s I compiled the June Year-to-Date (YtD) rounds, revenue and rates information for the By-the-Numbers
section of this month’s edition, I wondered if the sea of
red numbers was solely due to last year’s phenomenal results
(relative to an unusual benchmark year) or whether they were
unusually low even compared to a longer-term “norm.” While
most of you know that I’m not a die-hard fan of PerformanceTrak when it comes to precision, it does give us the ability
which we didn’t possess pre-2005 to answer questions like this
about longer-term trends and averages. So, armed with access
to their historical Rounds and Greens Fee Revenue figures back
to 2009 for the June YtD period, I set out looking for an answer.
Not to toot our own horn (too much), in the 2012 State of
the Industry which Stuart Lindsay and I delivered in Orlando
back in January, we gave fair warning to those in attendance and
who bought the report that 2012 was an anomaly in weather
terms, both in the absolute and relative to longer-term averages.
We cautioned those who would listen that planning the 2013
season off anything resembling the 2012 results would be a fool’s
errand. While acknowledging the vagaries and relative accuracy
of long-term weather forecasts, we outlined our case for the fact
that favorable weather likely contributed a roughly 8% boost
vs. 2011 and was near-record even over an extended period of
time. This was quantitatively supported by the fact that 2012
was roughly 5% above the 9-year average (’04-’12). Our 2013
forecast at the national level was an 8% decline in Golf Playable
Hours (GPH), which would put us back to the 2011 level and,
coincidentally, back below the long-term average. It turns out
that the 2013 performance is actually even slightly worse than
that prediction, based on looking at the weather trends and the
rounds and revenue performance through the first six months
of the year.
The table (opposite page) outlines the “tale of the tape” in
trying to get the license plate of that truck which has run over
the golf industry through the first six months of 2013. Setting
up the chart, here is the structure and the key dimensions:
• The upper chart is tracking historical Rounds trends for
the June YtD period for each of the years from 20092013. The lower chart is the same treatment for the measure Median Greens Fee Revenue over the same period.
• We’ve captured the values both for All Facilities as well as
for the Facility types as broken out by PerformanceTrak.
As it turns out, there’s not significant differences among
the facility types on the Rounds measure but I had already
constructed the chart so you get the benefit of seeing this
level of detail because I was too lazy to edit it.
• Out to the right we created comparisons of the June 2012
YtD values against both Year-Ago (YA) and the 4-yr Avg
(’09-’12). What we were trying to determine is if the
2013 performance was really “on norm” or even uglier.
The simple answer to the question is, “2013’s results through
June are way down vs. an abnormal 2012 but also down more
than anticipated vs. the long-term average.” Let’s see what the
support is for that statement.
On the rounds front at the All Facilities level (line called Tot.
Rds YtD at the top of the first set of numbers), you can see that,
for the Median rounds played at 11.4K, we’re trailing 2012 by
roughly 11%. You can also see in the far-right column that this
is also roughly 6% below the 4-yr average. What’s interesting
looking at the timeseries of values for ’09-’11, the 11.4K value
through June in 2013 is actually not a bad comparative value.
We have to consider, however, that the 2009-2011 period was
one of continuous decline, so that’s why we included the 2012
results to offset that trend. On the rounds front, you can see
by going down the table through the various facility types the
general trend is that 2013 is roughly 10% below 2012 and 5%
below the 4-yr average. So, rounds results for this year are both
relatively low (compared to last year) and absolutely low (compared to the average). Recall that Pellucid had forecast that
2013 would be 8% below 2012 on weather, which would also
put it about 3% below the long-term average. In other words,
While most of you know that I’m not a die-hard fan
of PerformanceTrak when it comes to precision,
it does give us the ability which we didn’t possess
pre-2005 to answer questions like this about
longer-term trends and averages.
4 The Pellucid PersPecTive
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - August 2013
The Pellucid Perspective - August 2013
Say good-bye to Ladies Day?
2013 mid-year review: Anyone get the license place of that truck?
The true cost of barter
Snowboarding is to skiing as ??? is to golf
New private club buyer/investor emerges
Skybrook Golf Club, Charlotte Golf Links owe millions, placed in receivership
July golf weather impact: Finally, a weather-favorable month vs. ’12
Finding golfers no circus act in Sarasota
The Pellucid Perspective - August 2013