The Pellucid Perspective - October 2013 - (Page 7)

GOLF PARTICIPATION A new determinant on “weather” golfers play or not? Data indicates meteorology more important than time, money or difficulty By Stuart Lindsay L ast month, we touched on the data that shows annual golf rounds demand has closely tracked weather variances in 2011, 2012 and so far in 2013. We also noted that this would seem to indicate that we had achieved some sort of equilibrium where weather was becoming more of a factor in determining rounds demand than discounting, which is having little impact on raising the demand for golf. I didn’t realize I was unleashing Pavlov’s dogs and would end up in a byzantine mathematical analysis of golfers as creatures of habit. Annual Rounds # of Golfers % Total Rounds % 1 2,700,000 11.1% 11.1% moving them up the frequency ladder as they age. The one constant for all these time periods is that the 10 – 39 rounds and 40+ groups play about 90% of all golf rounds. The big problem is that the number of golfers in those groups is dwindling and we are becoming more dependent on a smaller group of “habitual” golfers to generate the bulk of golf demand – only 50% of all golfers were in those groups in 2012 compared to 57% in 1990 and 63% in 2000. The good news is that the remaining golfers in those groups are increasing their frequencies to maintain that 90% of demand threshold, but the bad news is that the 5 million golfers we have lost have actually ended up coming from the high par- 11.1% 2 to 9 9,423,000 38.6% 38.6% 38.6% 10 to 39 7,820,000 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% 40 + 4,463,000 18.3% 18.3% 18.3% 20.2 24,406,000 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% The big problem is that the number of golfers in those groups is dwindling and we are becoming more dependent on a smaller group of “habitual” golfers to generate the bulk of golf demand – only 50% of all golfers were in those groups in 2012 compared to 57% in 1990 and 63% in 2000. If you look at the 2012 data on golfer population and frequency from our State of the Industry, we know the number of one-time participants and rounds and then take the mid-point of the 2 – 9 round participants (5.5), the 10 – 39 group (24.5) and then subtract those rounds from our total to get rounds for the 40+ group, we can triangulate the number of rounds for the 40+ group (55.3). Short of having the median rounds for each of the groups (we’ll try to get that number for the next SOI), the above numbers are at least very instructive, especially if we look at them over time. As Jim Koppenhaver points out every year, new golfers don’t go from 0 to 55 annual rounds as fast as a Porsche and frequent golfers don’t go from 55 to 0 as if they are braking for a deer. It turns out that there is a lot more fluid movement within and between these segments than we may have previously recognized and seems to show that we have not been very successful in retaining existing golfers, let alone ticipation and frequency groups. While we have pointed out for several years that we can find 4 – 5 million missing golfers in the decreased participation in the 18 – 35 age group, this data suggests we really need to be working on existing golfers of all ages in terms of increasing retention and frequency. We also have to pay attention to our existing constituency – in 1990 golfers over 55 played 37% of all rounds compared Annual Rounds # of Golfers 1990 % # of Golfers 2000 % # of Golfers 2005 % # of Golfers 2012 % 1 1,419,000 5.8% 2,506,000 8.5% 3,023,000 10.8% 2,700,000 11.1% 2 to 9 9,084,000 37.3% 8,385,000 28.5% 10,422,000 37.3% 9,423,000 38.6% 10 to 39 9,061,000 37.2% 12,000,000 40.7% 9,275,000 33.2% 7,820,000 32.0% 40 + 4,794,000 19.7% 6,580,000 22.3% 5,236,000 18.7% 4,463,000 18.3% 0.0 24,358,000 100.0% 29,471,000 100.0% 27,956,000 100.0% 24,406,000 100.0% www.PellucidCorp.com The Pellucid PersPecTive 7 http://WWW.PELLUCIDCORP.COM

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - October 2013

The Pellucid Perspective - October 2013
ontents
Are golf ’s nonprofit “emperors” fiddling while Rome burns?
Seniors in their golden years, but are you?
A new determinant on “weather” golfers play or not?
Golf needs a voice in the regulatory process
September golf weather impact: Positive month caps positive Q3
Established SF courses leap-frog larger markets
ClubCorp IPO shares priced lower than expected at opening, rise 10% in debut
The show must go on

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